Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (4): 471-482.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2025.04.004

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Analysis of the Climate Production Potential Characteristics of Rice under the Background of Climate Change in Hilly Area of Central Sichuan

LI Jing-rui, LUO Huai-liang, LIU Xiao-ran   

  1. 1.China Meteorological Administration Key Open Laboratory of Transforming Climate Resources to Economy/Wuxi County Meteorological Bureau, Chongqing 405899, China; 2.Sichuan Normal University/Key Laboratory of Land Resource Evaluation and Monitoring, Ministry of Education, Chengdu, 610066; 3.China Meteorological Administration Key Open Laboratory of Transforming Climate Resources to Economy/Chongqing Institute of Meteorological Science, Chongqing 401147
  • Received:2024-04-26 Online:2025-04-20 Published:2025-04-14

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Abstract:

Based on daily meteorological data in the hilly areas of central Sichuan from 1970 to 2023, the modified FAO climate production potential model was used to analyze the temporal and spatial dynamic characteristics of climate change and rice climate production potential. Then, based on the rice production data over the years, the utilization of climate resources was evaluated, and the sensitivity model was used to explore the impact of climate change on climate production potential. The results showed that: (1) during the study period, the heat resources in the hilly area of central Sichuan increased significantly, the interannual fluctuation of precipitation was large, the sunshine resources were scarce, the heat and light resources were latitudinal distribution, and the water resources were meridional distribution. (2) The climatic production potential of rice in the hilly region of central Sichuan province showed a "increase decrease increase" change, and the annual average value was 15198kg·ha−1, which was high in the southeast and low in the northwest. (3) The annual average utilization rate of climate resources was 50.94%, with great potential for yield increase in the future. (4) Sensitivity analysis shows that an increase in water resources had a positive impact on climate production potential, while an increase in heat resources had a negative impact. In the background of future climate change, the significant warming trend in the region will limit the increase in climate production potential, and the interannual fluctuations in precipitation will seriously affect the stability of climate production potential. In the future, the structure of rice cultivation should be moderately adjusted, climate resources should be explored reasonably, and water resource utilization should be optimized to improve the utilization rate of climate resources in the hilly areas of central Sichuan.

Key words: Climate change, Rice, Climate production potential, Climate resource utilization rate, Hilly area of central Sichuan