Abstract: Temperature was one of the most important factors for rice leaf roller(Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenee) development,survival and reproduction.It was helpful for controlling the pest population to understand the relationship between temperature and rice leaf roller population.Simulation model was established by using dynamic theory based on the experimental data with different temperature treatments,and the population dynamics at different temperatures was simulated.Eggs quantity produced by adult rice leaf roller was estimated and the optimum temperature for laying eggs was determined.The results showed that high temperature(> 25.0℃) was harmful to the survival and development of young larvae,whereas both high and low temperatures were harmful to development and reproduction at late growth stage.Survival rate and individual reproduction rate increased with temperature rising,and the highest survival rate and egg production rate of adults occurred at 25.0℃,at the rate of 19.67% and 1488.4 respectively.24.9℃ was the optimum temperature for adult producing eggs.The results indicated that system dynamics model had potential application for forecasting pest population dynamics.

Key words: Rice leaf roller(Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenee), Rice leaf roller(Cnaphalocrocis medinalis Guenee), Population dynamics, Temperature, System dynamic, Simulation model