Impact of Climate Change on Walnut-Planting Climatic Suitability in Xinjiang

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2018.04.006

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the data of daily mean temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature from 102 meteorological stations in Xinjiang during 1961-2015, the fundamental spatial-temporal change characteristic of key climatic factors affecting walnut planting, such as ≥10℃ accumulated temperature(∑Tmen≥10℃), days of minimum temperature was lower than -25℃ (DTmin≤-25℃), days of the daily maximum temperature was over 40℃(DTmax≥40℃) and the days which was the last frost date earlier than the first date of daily mean temperature≥10℃(DFTmen≥10℃-LF), were analyzed by using the methods of linear regression, accumulative anomaly, T-test and mixed spatial interpolation technology based on ArcGIS. And the effect of above climatic factors change on walnut-planting climatic suitability, and the distributed areas of suitable, sub-suitable and unsuitable to walnut-planting were studied by combining with the climatic suitability zoning index of walnut planting. The main results showed that spatial distribution of above climatic factors had very obvious difference from place to place in Xinjiang, generally, ∑Tmen≥10℃ were more in south than in north, in plain and basin than in mountain regions. DTmin≤-25℃ were more in north and mountain regions than in south, plain and basin. DTmax≥40℃ were more in east, plain and basin than in west and mountain regions. DFTmen≥10℃-LF were more in west and mountain regions than in east, plain and basin. Under the comprehensive influence of above climatic factors, the climate suitable areas for walnut planting were mainly in the west of Tarim basin, sub-suitable areas were in most of Tarim basin and the south of Tuha basin. Most of the northern Xinjiang, Altai mountain, Tianshan mountain and Kunlun mountain, and the Tuha basin, eastern part of the Tarim basin were not suitable for walnut-planting. In the background of global warming, ∑Tmen≥10℃, DTmax≥40℃ and DFTmen≥10℃?LF had been significantly（P＜0.05）increased? with the rate of 64.7℃·d·10y-1，0.48d·10y-1 and 0.120d·10y-1, respectively, DTmin≤-25℃ presented significantly（P＜0.001）decreasing trend with the rate of -0.980d·10y-1, and above climatic factors had mutation in 1986 or 1997 respectively, climate warming was obvious in recent 55 years in Xinjiang. By the affected of climate warming, the suitable areas and sub-suitable areas for walnut-planting were increased, but unsuitable areas were decreased after 1997 than before in Xinjiang region, generally, climate warming was beneficial to walnut planting in Xinjiang during 1961-2015.

Key words: Climate change, ≥10℃ accumulated temperature, Days of minimum temperature is lower than ?25℃, Days of maximum temperature is over than 40℃, Days of last frost date earlier than the first date of daily mean temperature≥10℃, Walnut-planting, Climatic suitability, Xinjiang region

PU Zong-chao，ZHANG Shan-qing. Impact of Climate Change on Walnut-Planting Climatic Suitability in Xinjiang[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2018, 39(04): 267-279.

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