中国农业气象 ›› 2013, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (03): 264-271.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2013.03.002

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

近50年西藏主要农区霜冻指标的变化特征

杜军1,2,石磊2,袁雷2   

  1. 1中国气象局成都高原气象研究所,成都610071;2西藏自治区气候中心,拉萨850001
  • 收稿日期:2012-09-08 出版日期:2013-06-20 发布日期:2013-06-17
  • 作者简介:杜军(1969-),贵州绥阳人,理学学士,正研级高工,主要从事青藏高原气候变化和农业气候研究。Email:dujun0891@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家自然科学基金项目(40865008)

Responses of Climatic Change on the Frost Days in Main Agricultural Area of Tibet from 1961 to 2010

DU Jun1,2,SHI Lei2,YUAN Le2   

  1. 1Institute of Plateau Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Chengdu610071,China;2Tibet Climatic Center,Lhasa850001
  • Received:2012-09-08 Online:2013-06-20 Published:2013-06-17

摘要: 以最低气温≤0℃作为霜冻指标,利用西藏9个气象站点1961-2010年逐日最低气温资料,采用气候倾向率、累积距平、信噪比和R/S分析等统计方法,分析西藏主要农区初霜日、终霜日、无霜期和霜冻日的异常气候变化,以期提高对异常霜冻灾害的预测能力,为有效防御霜冻提供依据。结果表明,(1)近50a西藏主要农区部分站点具有初霜日推迟、终霜日提早、无霜期延长的趋势;所有站点的霜冻日均表现为显著的减少趋势,减幅为1.9~9.6d/10a(P<0.05)。(2)20世纪80年代至21世纪初,大部农区表现为初霜日推迟、终霜日提早、无霜期延长和霜冻日减少的年代际变化特征,尤以21世纪初明显。(3)近50a来,主要农区特早初霜冻发生频数为1~5次,以波密最多;特晚终霜冻发生频数为1~6次,仍以波密最多且主要发生在60年代;特短无霜期发生频数为1~7次,以波密最高;特少霜冻日的发生频数为2~10次,主要在21世纪初;特多霜冻日的发生频数为1~7次,多发生在60年代。(4)突变检测表明,拉萨的霜冻日,泽当的终霜日、无霜期和霜冻日以及浪卡子的无霜期和霜冻日发生了气候突变,突变点分别在1992、1991和1998年。(5)根据R/S分析,大部农区终霜日的Hurst指数大于0.5,说明未来终霜日仍将趋于提早,以泽当最为突出;各农区霜冻日Hurst指数均大于0.5,表明未来霜冻日仍趋于减少。

关键词: 霜冻日, Hurst指数, 异常, 气候突变, 西藏农区

Abstract: According to the frost index defined by the minimum air temperature ≤0℃,the climatic change of the anomalous first frost date,last frost date,frostless period and frost days were analyzed in this paper,using the daily minimum temperature of 9 stations at main agricultural area of Tibet from 1961 to 2010 and modern statistical diagnosis methods,such as linear trend analysis,accumulative anomaly,signal noise ratio and rescaled range analysis (R/S analysis).The results showed that,(1)in recent 50 years,the first frost date appeared late,the last frost date ended early,so that the frostless period was extended significantly in the part stations,while decrease trend of the frost days was detected with a rate of 1.9-9.6d/10y in all stations at main agricultural area of Tibet.(2)From 1980s to 2000s,because the first frost date appeared late and the last frost date ended early made frostless period prolong,and the frost days had a decreasing tendency,especially in the 2000s.(3)In addition,it was found that the frequency of anomalous early first frost date was 1 to 5 times at main agricultural area of Tibet,especially the maximum in Bome, meanwhile the frequency of anomalous late ending frost date was 1 to 6 times,the most in Bome and occurred in the 1960s.Frequency of anomalous short frostless period was 1 to 7 times,it was the most in Bome. Furthermore,the frequency of anomalous less frost days was 2 to 10 times and occurred in the 2000s,and the anomalous more frost days occurred in the 1960s with a frequency of 1 to 7 times.(4)It was found with abrupt change test that frost days in Lhasa,last frost date,frostless period and frost days in Tesdang,frostless period and frost days in Nagarze had abrupt change,which happened respectively in 1992,1991 and 1998.(5)The results of R/S analysis showed that changes of last frost date had the persistence with a Hurst index of larger than 0.5 in the part stations,which indicates that it will assume continuous earlier in future,especially in Tesdang.Also the Hurst index of frost days was larger than 0.5 in all stations,and it will assume continuous decrease in future.

Key words: Frost days, Hurst index, Anomalous, Climate abrupt, Main agricultural area of Tibet