中国农业气象 ›› 2013, Vol. 34 ›› Issue (03): 257-263.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2013.03.001

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

塔里木河流域内气候要素变化的非均衡性及其成因分析

王秋香,张春良,胡义成,司鹏   

  1. 1新疆气象信息中心,乌鲁木齐830002;2新疆维吾尔自治区人工影响天气办公室,乌鲁木齐830002;3天津市气象信息中心,天津300074
  • 收稿日期:2012-06-25 出版日期:2013-06-20 发布日期:2013-06-17
  • 作者简介:王秋香(1961-),女,新疆乌鲁木齐人,学士,正研级高工,主要从事气候变化、气象数据处理及气象灾害研究。Email:wqx188@126.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家卫星气象中心“FY-3卫星荒漠化遥感监测应用示范”(FiDAF-2-07)﹔科技部公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201106007)

Unconsistency of Climate Elements Variation and its Causes in Tarim River Basin

WANG Qiu xiang1,ZHANG Chun liang2,HU Yi cheng1,SI Peng3   

  1. 1Xinjiang Meteorological Information Centre, Urumqi830002, China;2Xinjiang Weather Modification Office,Urumqi830002;3Tianjin Meteorological Information Centre,Tianjin300074
  • Received:2012-06-25 Online:2013-06-20 Published:2013-06-17

摘要: 将塔里木河流域灌区分成阿克苏地区、塔里木河下游地区和南疆西部自然区3个区域,分别代表水源丰富区、严重缺水生态脆弱区及自然生态区。选取流域内44个气象站1961-2011年生长季节(3-10月)气温、降水量、相对湿度、大风日数、定时平均最大风速、≥0.1mm的降水日数等资料,用线性趋势分析及MannKendall法对各区气候要素变化特征进行对比分析。结果表明:(1)3个区域气温、降水量及相对湿度具有一致的线性增加趋势,但其增加速率存在显著差异(P<0.05)。阿克苏地区(丰水区)气温升高速率小、降水量和相对湿度增加速率大,塔里木河下游地区(缺水区)气温升高速率大、降水量和相对湿度增加速率小。降水量增加主要发生在20世纪80年代,比70年代增加了22.29%~41.00%,相对湿度在90年代呈现较高增加势头,比80年代增加4.10%~6.27%。(2)M-K突变检测表明,塔里木河流域相对湿度于1973年发生了突变,降水量发生的突变年份各区域差异较大,阿克苏地区在1975年,塔里木河下游在1979年,南疆西部在1989年。(3)3个区域气温、降水量及相对湿度一致的线性增长趋势,主要是受大气候背景的影响。线性增长速率的差异,主要与局地人类活动即灌溉用水不均衡有关。研究结果可为进一步认清灌区气候变化,合理开发利用塔里木河水资源提供科学依据。

关键词: 塔里木河流域, 生长季节, 气温, 降水量, 相对湿度, 截水灌溉, 趋势, M-K检测

Abstract: According to the actual circumstance of catch flow irrigation,Tarim river valley was divided into three districts,Akesu territory with abundant water resource,the downstream region of Tarim river with serious water shortage and ecosystem flimsiness caused catching flow irrigation overmuch in its upriver,and the west natural area of Southern Xinjiang.By the data of temperature,rainfall,relative humidity,gale days,mean maximum wind speed and rain days with ≥0.1mm rainfall in the growth season (Mar.to Oct.) in 1961-2011 of 44 meteorological stations in valley area,environment and climate impact was contrasted and analyzed with climatic trend coefficient and Mann-Kendall test method.The results showed that the temperature,rainfall and relative humidity in three districts had a linear increase trend,which caused by warmer and rainy effect under the great climate background.As a result of unbalanced catch flow irrigation,their increase trend had a significant difference.The warmer rate was small in water plentiful area and more in water shortage area.Moreover the increase rate of precipitation and relative humidity was opposite,to be more in water plentiful area and little in water shortage area.The increasing of rain occurred mainly in 1980s with 22.29%-41.00%,but the relative humidity presented increasing tendency in 1990s with 4.109%-6.279%.M-K test presented large scale catch flow irrigation caused the relative humidity before the rainfall to happen abrupt change at 1973 synchronously in Tarim river valley,and the age of happened abrupt change for the rainfall had rather diversity on account of disproportion catch flow irrigation,Akesu area,the downstream region of Tarim river and the west of southern Xinjiang to be the summer of 1975,1979 and 1989 respectively.The temperature,precipitation and relative humidity had a consistent linear increasing trend in Tarim river valley,which was mainly affected by climate background.The difference of the linear rate was mainly related to local human activities with unbalanced water irrigation.The study results provided scientific basis for further recognizing on climate change and rational developping the water resources in Tarim river valley.

Key words: Tarim river valley, Growth season, Temperature, Precipitation, Relative humidity, Catch flow irrigation, Trend, M-K check