关键词: 气候系统模式, 极端降水指数R5d, 预估, 三峡库区

Abstract: Based on the daily precipitation data during 1961-2007 from 17 stations in the Three Gorges area,temporal variation of Maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation totals (referred to as R5d)was analyzed. Through evaluating the simulation ability of 9 IPCC-AR4 Coupled Climate Models,the results of R5d in 2001-2100 relative to the average of 1980-1999 in the Three Gorges,projected by the 5 models under the A2,A1B,and B1 emissions scenarios of SRES were showed. The results showed that the linear trend of R5d was not obvious and existed obvious 2 years and 5 years periods of inter-annual variation in recent 47 years. The decadal change of R5d,1960s and 2001-2007 was relatively small,1970s,1980s and 1990s on the high side relative. Compared to the current climate (1980-1999),R5d in the Three Gorges would be increased in the majority of time in the 21st century under different SRES,especially increased more significantly in the late 21st century than the early and the middle 21st century. Under the A2,A1B,and B1 emissions scenarios,in the early 21st century R5d would be increased by 0.5~5.4mm,in the middle 21st century increased by 9.3~14.8mm,and in the late 21st century increased by 12.7~26.4mm.

Key words: Climate system models, Climate system models, Extreme precipitation index (R5d), Projection, Three Gorges area