基于气候生产潜力的云南人粮关系及其未来变化

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2019.02.004

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于云南117个气象站1961?2015年观测实况及全球气候模式模拟的2016?2055年年平均气温、降水量数据，使用Thornthwaite Memorial模型计算并分析云南各地气候生产潜力（Tspv）的时空变化特征，构建并计算Tspv的人口承载力（Tspv-人口承载力）和气候承载力指数。结果表明：（1）云南Tspv呈现明显的纬向分布及垂直分布特征，总体表现为南部高于北部，低海拔地区高于高海拔地区，降水是云南Tspv主要限制因子；（2）1961-2015年全省Tspv仅滇西的部分地区显著增加，滇中局部等地显著减少，其余地区变化不显著，全省平均Tspv年际波动大，在2009年前后发生突变；（3）2006-2015年云南人均粮食供应稳定增长，接近或超过小康型粮食需求，耕地的人口承载力（耕地,人口承载力）逐年增加，但远低于Tspv-人口承载力，即使在极端减产年，Tspv-人口承载力水平仍能满足当前人口、耕地规模下富裕型粮食需求，人粮关系状态为盈余；（4）如果保持现有稳定的人口、耕地及生产力水平增幅，未来不同的排放情景下，云南Tspv及Tspv-人口承载力都将稳定增加，人粮关系状态以粮食盈余为主，且高排放情景下承载力和人粮关系状态水平均优于低排放情景。

关键词: 云南, 气候生产潜力, 人口承载力, 气候承载力, 人粮关系, 气候变化预估

Abstract:

In order to analyze and compare population carrying capacity and human-grain relationship based on food supply and climatic potential productivity (Tspv) in Yunnan, population carrying capacity and human-grain relationship under future climate change were predicted. In this study, using average temperature and annual precipitation observed by 117 meteorological stations in Yunnan in 1961?2015 and simulated by the global climate model in 2016-2055, the temporal-spatial changing characteristics of Tspv in various regions of Yunnan were calculated and analyzed by the Thornthwaite Memorial model, and Tspv -population carrying capacity and climate carrying capacity were constructed and calculated. The results showed that: (1) Tspv in Yunnan presented obvious zonal and vertical distribution. Overall, Tspv was higher in the south than that in the north, and higher in areas at low altitude than that in areas at high altitude. Precipitation is the main limiting factor of Tspv in Yunnan. (2)In 1961-2015, Tspv only significantly increased in partial areas of western Yunnan, significantly decreased in local areas of central Yunnan, and showed no obvious change in other areas. Average Tspv in Yunnan presented large inter-annual fluctuations and a significant change around 2009. (3)In 2006-2015, per capita grain supply in Yunnan grew steadily, approaching or exceeding the demand of well-off grain. Cultivated land-population carrying capacity increased year by year, but was far lower than Tspv-population carrying capacity. Although during year with a sharp yield reduction, Tspv-population carrying capacity could still meet the demand of affluent grain under current population and cultivated land scale, with a surplus human-grain relationship. (4)With current stable amplitude of population, cultivated land and productivity, Tspv and Tspv-population carrying capacity in Yunnan will increase stably, and human-grain relationship will mainly be grain surplus under different emissions in the future. The carrying capacity and human-grain relationship under high emission will be superior to low emission.

Key words: Yunnan, Climate potential productivity, Population carrying capacity, Climate carrying capacity, Human-grain relationship, Climate change prediction

李蒙，朱勇，周建琴，马思源. 基于气候生产潜力的云南人粮关系及其未来变化[J]. 中国农业气象, 2019, 40(02): 96-104.

LI Meng, ZHU Yong, ZHOU Jian-qin, MA Si-yuan. Human-grain Relationship and Its Future Change in Yunnan Based on Climatic Potential Productivity[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2019, 40(02): 96-104.

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