中国农业气象 ›› 2018, Vol. 39 ›› Issue (01): 9-17.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2018.01.002

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于时间序列分析并预测三峡库区局地环境温度的变化

马力,于瑞林,李杰,夏立忠,LI Yun-cong   

  1. 1.中国科学院南京土壤研究所,南京 210008;2.山东农业大学,泰安,271018;3.Soil and Water Science Department,Tropical Research and Education Center,University of Florida,Homestead,FL 33031,USA
  • 收稿日期:2017-04-30 出版日期:2018-01-20 发布日期:2018-01-19
  • 作者简介:马力(1979-),博士,副研究员,主要从事三峡库区生态环境监测与面源污染控制研究。E-mail:lma@issas.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    中国科学院南京土壤研究所“一三五”计划和领域前沿项目(ISSASIP1663);国家自然科学基金(41301307)

Research on Local Environmental Temperature Change and Forecast in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area Based on Time Series Analysis

MA Li, YU Rui-lin, LI Jie, XIA Li-zhong, LI Yun-cong   

  1. 1.Institute of Soil Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing 210008, China; 2.Shandong Agricultural University, Tai’an, Shandong 271018, China; 3.Soil and Water Science Department, Tropical Research and Education Center, University of Florida, Homestead, FL 33031, USA
  • Received:2017-04-30 Online:2018-01-20 Published:2018-01-19

摘要: 利用湖北秭归三峡库首典型区的气象监测资料,采用时间序列分析和自回归积分滑动平均模型(ARIAM)方法,对三峡库区2001-2015年局地环境温度变化进行趋势和预测分析,以探讨三峡工程蓄水对库区局地气候环境变化的影响。结果表明,研究区域局地气温和地温的时间序列为季节性非平稳时间序列,年际月平均气温峰值在7月(29.0℃),低谷在1月(6.0℃);研究期内局地平均气温在2003年降至17.8℃,2007年稳定升至18.3℃;2011年持续降至的17.1℃,之后稳定升至2013年的17.9℃。平均地温在2005年升至21.2℃,2008年持续降至19.4℃,后期在2013年稳定升至20.1℃。分析结果显示,在2003年蓄水前后三峡库首典型区局地环境温度呈现一定程度年际波动,但不存在显著单一的变化趋势,说明在研究期15a内三峡工程蓄水对研究区域的局地环境温度未产生显著影响。用ARIMA模型获得了气温和地温的最佳预测模型,2015年预测值与监测值的符合程度良好,可进一步利用该地区长期监测数据对模型进行优化和应用。

关键词: 时间序列, 局地气候, 三峡库区, 温度, ARIAM模型

Abstract: To confirm the effects of water storage of the Three Gorges Project on local climate change, using the method of time series analysis and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA), local temperatures in a typical area of the upper basin of the Three Gorges Reservoir area (TGA) located in Zigui County were continuously observed and analyzed during 2001-2015. The results showed that the time series of air and soil temperature can be determined as the seasonal non-stationary time series, the peak value of monthly mean air temperature occurred in July (29.0℃) and trough value occurred in January (6.0℃). The air temperature declined to17.8℃ in 2003 and then stable up to 18.3℃ in 2007, the medium term continued to decline to 17.1℃ in 2011, and the latter stable up to 17.8℃ in 2013; the soil temperature stable increased to 21.1℃ in 2005, declined to 19.3℃ in 2008, and the latter stable up to 20.0℃ in 2013. The local environment temperature in the upper basin of the TGA had a certain degree of inter-annual fluctuation, but no significantly monotonic trends were found. These results indicate that the water storage of the Three Gorges Project had no significant influence on the local environmental temperature in the study area during the 15 years. Forecast models of air and soil temperature were obtained using ARIMA model, the forecast value and the observed value are in good agreement with the observed value in 2015. The results also indicated that the model can be optimized and applied for long-term monitoring data in this region.

Key words: Time series, Local climate, Three Gorges Reservoir area (TGA), Temperature, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model