关键词: 福建, 马铃薯, 风险区划, 歉年平均减产率, 歉年减产率变异系数, 减产率发生概率

Abstract: The relative meteorological yield of potato was calculated by using 5 year line moving average method based on the annual potato yield data of 67 counties from 1993 to 2009 in Fujian province. The risk division indices,including average decreasing rate during disaster years, variation coefficient of decreasing rate during disaster years, probability occurrence of decreasing rate(＞5%), were determined. The comprehensive index was then calculated by using equal weighted method and the division map was drawn for the risk analysis and division of potato climatic reduction in Fujian province. The results showed that the regions with severe risk were distributed in the coastal counties south of Fuzhou, southern mountain areas and northern mountain areas, while regions with light risk were distributed in the other areas of the province. The fluctuation of potato yield in the southern area was more obvious, and the fluctuation in the northern area was very tiny. The probability occurrence spatial distribution of decreasing rate was basically identified with the spatial distribution of comprehensive risk index. Regions with high risk were mainly distributed in the coastal counties south of Fuzhou, Pucheng in the northern Fujian and Wuping in the southern corner, the regions with low risk were mainly distributed in one line (Changting-Yong′an-Youxi-Minhou) in the middle areas and the eastern areas of Fujian, and the regions with moderate risk were distributed in the other areas. The results could provide reference for rational distribution of potato yield and disaster prevention and reduction.

Key words: Fujian province, Potato, Risk division, Average decreasing rate during disaster years, Variation coefficient of decreasing rate during disaster years, Probability occurrence of decreasing rate