关键词: 天水蜜桃, 开花坐果, 霜冻灾害, 灾情指数, 风险评估

Abstract: Taking relative meteorological yield of Tianshui peach stepwise regression analysis with meteorological factors during flowering and fruit bearing period, including ＜0℃ daily minimum temperature and ＜0℃ daily minimum ground surface temperature, the key frost risk factors, the extreme minimum temperature below 0℃ and the product of surface ground temperature below 0℃ and its continuous days, was obtained, the affecting weights of two factors were 12% and 88%. Then the evaluation model was established .taking it as the major hazard of frost disaster risk factors and the disastor indicator was calucated. Comprehensive assessment was conducted with frost disastor to Tianshui peach from 1991 to 2010, comparing to yield levels and frost disasters survey. All of the reality was completely consistent with assessment apart from 2001 and 2005, which indicated that assessment accuracy was higher. The results could provide scientific basic to deal with frost risk of Tianshui peach during flowering and fruit bearing period and improve yield.

Key words: Tianshui peach, Flowering and fruit bearing, Frost disaster, Disaster assessment indicators, Risk assessment