关键词: 设施农业, 冬季低温, 风险分析, 区划

Abstract: The layout of protected agriculture types was identified by using mathematical statistics, based on observed meteorological data in winter from 29 representative meteorological stations in Anhui province from 1960 to 2010 The comprehensive risk index of low temperature was established with 4 parameters, including climatic probability and its volatility of annual extreme low temperature, occurrence intensity and average days of daily lowest temperature in winter The results showed that it was not suitable for small plastic arch shed if risk probability of extreme low temperature (<50℃) was more than 80% If the risk probability of extreme low temperature (<100℃) was more than 20%, where located along Huaihe river, it was suitable to plastic sheeting in south region and suitable to sunlight greenhouse in north region The comprehensive risk index of low temperature was divided into 5 grades, no effect, slight, moderate, severe and extra severe respectively Slight and moderate damage was dominated in south of Huaihe river and moderate and severe damage was dominated in north of Huaihe river.

Key words: Protected agriculture, Low temperature in winter, Risk analysis, Division