湖南双季稻区5月低温特征及预警信号研究

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.01.008

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用湖南双季稻区66个气象站1961-2013年5月逐日气温资料，建立5月低温强度指数，对5月低温的时空分布和强度特征进行分析，并采用大气变量物理分解法探寻5月低温天气过程的前期信号。结果表明：5月低温在研究区具有南少北多的地域特点，根据影响范围主要可分为全省一致型、湘中以北型和湘北型3种空间分布形态。5月低温过程强度较大，80%达中度及以上程度，影响范围较广，50%的低温过程影响双季稻区70%以上的站点。研究期内15次5月低温过程中有14次分别在850hPa和300hPa图上出现温度扰动和位势高度扰动负值中心，因此，通过追踪850hPa层的温度扰动能提前5～10d预测5月低温的出现。温度扰动的移动路径主要有东路、西北路和西路3条，且以东路为主。移动路径为东路时，出现湘北型5月低温概率最大，为西北路时，一般出现湘中以北型5月低温。

关键词: 5月低温, 空间分布型, 物理分解, 温度扰动, 前期信号

Abstract: Based on daily temperature data of May from 66 meteorological stations in double cropping rice area of Hunan province during 1961-2013，the intensity index of chilling in May（IICM）was calculated，which was used to analyze the characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution and intensity of chilling in May.The method of physical decomposition of atmospheric variables was used to find possible precursors to indicate chilling process in May.The results showed that in the studied area the distribution of chilling in May was less in the south than that in the north and there were three main types: whole province，north middle Hunan，north Hunan.The intensity index of eighty percent of chilling processes in May were moderate or above and fifty percent of chilling processes in May effected on seventy percent of stations in double cropping rice area. During the study，fourteen processes occupied the negative center of temperature transient anomalies on the 850hPa level and the negative center of geopotential height transient anomalies on the 300hPa level，respectively.The negative center of temperature transient anomalies on the 850hPa level could be traced as precursors to indicate the occurrence of chilling process in May over 5-10 days in advance.The moving track of temperature transient anomalies had three，such as west road，northwest road and east road which was primary moving track.The chilling processes in May were north Hunan type mainly when the moving track was east road and generally they were north middle Hunan type when the moving track was north west road.

Key words: Chilling in May, Spatial distribution types, Physical decomposition, Temperature Anomalies, Precursors

张超，王黎娟，陆魁东. 湖南双季稻区5月低温特征及预警信号研究[J]. 中国农业气象, 2015, 36(01): 57-66.

ZHANG Chao，WANG Li juan，LU Kui dong. Study on Characteristics and Warning Signals of Chilling in May in Double Cropping Rice Area of Hunan Province[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2015, 36(01): 57-66.

参考文献

[1]陆魁东，帅细强，李文华，等.DB43/T234-2004 气象灾害术语和分级[S].长沙：湖南省质量技术监督局，2004.
Lu K D，Shuai X Q，LI W H，et al.DB43/T234-2004 meteorological disaster terminology and classification[S].Changsha：Administration of Quality and Technology Supervision of Hunan Province，2004.(in Chinese)
[2]汪孝清，柯耀文.江汉平原四湖地区低温阴雨天气对早稻产量的影响[J].湖北气象，2000，(2)：34-35.
Wang X Q，Ke Y W. Influence of low temperature and overcast，2000，(2)：34-35.(in Chinese) on early rice production in Sihu area of Jianghan plain [J].Meteorology Journal of Hubei
[3]邓立平.5月低温与早稻生产[J].湖南农业，2001，(4)：4.
Deng L P. Chilling in May and early rice production[J].Hunan Agriculture,2001,(4):4.(in Chinese)
[4]陈琼，黄晚华.环洞庭区出现大面积早稻“空秕谷” 农业气象专家提醒不要盲目提前播种[N].中国气象报，2009-07-03.
Chen Q，Huang W H. Due to high empty husks rate in double-cropping early rice in the area of Dongting lake，agricultural meteorologists warned not to blindly advance sowing[N].China Meteorological News，2009-07-03.(in Chinese)
[5]田小海，周恒多，张宇飞，等.两湖平原罕见早稻结实障碍调查[J].湖北农业科学，2009，18(11)：2657-2659.
Tian X H，Zhou H D，Zhang Y F，et al. Field survey to an exceptionally serious mai-seeding disaster in early rice at Jianghan plain and Dongting lake plain areas[J].Hubei Agricultural Sciences, 2009,18(11)：2657-2659.(in Chinese)
[6]王华.5月低温对农作物的影响[J].湖南农业，2008，(4)：17.
Wang H. Influence of Chilling in May on crops[J].Hunan Agriculture，2008，(4)：17.(in Chinese)
[7]邓立平.醴陵市5月低温对早稻生产的影响及防御对策[J].作物研究，1996，10(3)：32-33.
Deng L P. Influence of Chilling in May on early rice and defensive countermeasures in Lilin[J].Crop Research，1996，10(3)：32-33.
[8]廖多竹，曹志坚.如何防御5月低温危害早稻[J].湖南农业，1997，(4)：7.
Liao D Z，Cao Z J. How to defense the effects of Chilling in May on early rice[J].Hunan Agriculture，1997，(4)：7.(in Chinese)
[9]郭江勇，叶燕华.甘肃东部春播期干旱指数变化特征及预测[J].中国农业气象，2004，25(1)：35-37.
Guo J Y，Ye Y H. The characteristics and prediction of spring drought index in the East Gansu Province[J]．Chinese Journal of Agrometeoro1ogy,2004,25(1)：35-37.(in Chinese)
[10]那家凤.基于均生函数水稻扬花低温冷害程度的EOF预测模型[J].中国农业气象，1998，19(4)：50-52.
Na J F.EOF analysis and forecast model based on periodic function of rice chilling damage weather[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeoro1ogy，1998，19(4)：50-52.(in Chinese)
[11]周立宏，刘新安，周育慧.东北地区低温冷害年的环流特征及预测[J].沈阳农业大学学报，2001，32(1)：22-25.
Zhou L H，Liu X A，Zhou Y H. Research of general circulation features and forecast of simmer low temperature and cold damage in the Northeast of China[J].Journal of Shenyang Agricultural University，2001，32(1)：22-25.(in Chinese)
[12]郭建平，田志会，张涓涓.东北地区玉米热量指数的预测模型研究[J].应用气象学报，2003，14(5)：626-633.
Guo J P，Tian Z H，Zhang J J. Forecasting models of heat index for corn in Northeast China[J]．Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2003,14(5):626-633.(in Chinese)
[13]姜丽霞，李帅，南瑞，等.东北玉米低温冷害监测预测系统在黑龙江省的应用[J].自然灾害学报，2010，19(1)：132-135.
Jiang L X，Li S，Nan R，et al. Maize’s chilling damage-monitoring and forecasting system for Northeast China：an application to Heilongjiang Province[J].Journal of Natural Disasters，2010,19(1)：132-135.(in Chinese)
[14]陈玥熤，郭建平.新疆棉花低温冷害逐步回归预测模型[J].中国农业气象，2008，29(4)：485-490.
Chen Y Y, Guo J P. Stepwise regression prediction model for cotton cold damage in Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeoro1ogy,2008，29(4)：485-490.(in Chinese)
[15]王秀清，马树庆，袭祝香，等.东北地区夏季低温冷害的长期预报[J].自然灾害学报，2006，15(3)：42-45．
Wang X Q, Ma S Q, Xi Z X, et al. Long-term forecast of summer's chilling damage in Northeast China[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2006,15(3)：42-45．(in Chinese)
[16]刘布春，王石立，庄立伟，等.基于东北玉米区域动力模型的低温冷害预报应用研究[J].应用气象学报，2003，14(5)：616-625．
Liu B C，Wang S L，Zhuang L W，et a1.Study of low temperature damage prediction applications in EN，China based on a scaling-up maize dynamic mode1[J]．Journal of Applied Meteorological Science，2003，14(5):616-625.(in Chinese)
[17]王石立，马玉平.作物生长模型在我国农业气象业务中的应用研究进展及思考[J].气象，2008，341(6)：3-10．
Wang S L，Ma Y P. The progress in application of crop growth simulation models to agro-meteorological services in China[J].Meteorological Monthly，2008,341(6)：3-10.(in Chinese)
[18]马玉平，王石立，李维京.基于作物生长模型的东北玉米冷害监测预测[J].作物学报，2011，37(10)：1868-1878．
Ma Y P, Wang S L, Li W J. Monitoring and predicting of maize chilling damage based on crop growth model in Northeast China[J].Acta Agronomica Sinica，2011，37(10)：1868-1878.(in Chinese)
[19]朱兰娟，蔡海航，姜纪红，等．农业气象灾害预警系统的开发与应用[J].科技通报，2008，24(6)：758-761．
Zhu L J，Cai H H，Jiang J H，et a1．A brief account about the agrometeorological disaster forewarning system[J].Bulletin of Science and Technology，2008，24(6)：758-761.(in Chinese)
[20]魏凤英，张京江.华北地区干旱的气候背景及其前兆强信号[J].气象学报，2003，61(3)：354-363.
Wei F Y，Zhang J J. Climatological background and previous stronger signal of anomaly drought over North China[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica，2003，61(3)：354-363.(in Chinese)
[21]钱维宏.天气尺度瞬变扰动的物理分解原理[J].地球物理学报，2012，55(5)：1439-1448.
Qian W H. Physical decomposition principle of regional scale atmospheric transient anomaly[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2012,55(5)：1439-1448.(in Chinese)
[22]陆魁东，罗伯良，黄晚华，等.影响湖南早稻生产的5月低温的风险评估[J].中国农业气象，2011，32(2)：283-289.
Lu K D，Luo B L，Huang W H，et al. Risk evaluation of the effects of chilling in May on early rice production in Hunan Province[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeoro1ogy，2011，32(2)：283-289.(in Chinese)
[23]中国农业科学院.中国农业气象学[M].北京：中国农业出版社，1999：318-335.
Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences. China agricultural meteorology[M]. Beijing：China
Agriculture Press，1999：318-335.
[24]钱维宏.中期延伸期天气预报原理[M].北京：科学出版社，2012：16-22.
Qian W H. Principles of medium to extended range weather forecasts[M].Beijing：China Science Press，2012.(in Chinese)
[25]丑纪范.一个创新研究：大气数值模式变量的物理分解及其在极端事件预报中的应用[J].地球物理学报，2012，55(5)：1433-1438.
Chou J F. An innovation study on the physical decomposition of numerical model atmospheric variables and their application in weather extreme events[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics，2012，55(5):1433-1438.(in Chinese)
[26]张宗婕，钱维宏.中国冬半年区域持续性低温事件的前期信号[J].大气科学，2012，36(6)：1269-1279.
Zhang Z J, Qian W H. Precursors of regional prolonged low temperature events in China during winter half year[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences，36(6)：1269-1279.(in Chinese)
[27]朱乾根，林锦瑞，寿绍文，等.天气学原理和方法(修订本)[M].北京：气象出版社，1992：379-380.
Zhu Q G, Lin J R, Shou S W, et al. Principles and methods of weather(revised edition)[M].Beijing：China Meteorological Press,1992：379-380.(in Chinese)