晋陕蒙地区≥10℃积温的时空变化特征

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2016.06.001

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用1960-2014年晋陕蒙三省75个气象站逐日平均气温实测数据，采用多元线性回归模型的积温空间模拟方法和气候倾向率法，对晋陕蒙地区1960-2014年日平均气温稳定≥10℃积温的时空特征进行分析。结果显示：（1）从整个分析期来看，1960-2014年晋陕蒙地区日平均气温稳定≥10℃积温总体呈上升趋势，近55a积温增速为74.60℃·d·10a-1，93%的气象站点积温增加趋势显著（P＜0.05），仅有7%的站点变化趋势不显著。（2）从空间分布来看，分析期内≥10℃积温平均值呈现由低纬度向高纬度、由低海拔向高海拔逐渐减少的规律。（3）从各年代积温线的移动情况看，＜1600℃·d、1600～3200℃·d占的区域面积占总面积比例呈现逐年代降低的趋势；3200～4500℃·d的区域面积占总面积的比例呈现逐年代升高趋势；＞4500℃·d所占区域面积占总面积的比例在1970-1979年、1980-1989年呈降低趋势，在1990-1999年、2000-2014年呈升高趋势。（4）从时段Ⅰ（1960-1989年）和时段Ⅱ（1980-2014年）气候带的变化情况看，中亚热带从无到有，北亚热带、暖温带区域面积逐渐增加，中温带和寒温带区域面积逐渐减少，气候带在气候变暖背景下呈北移西扩的趋势。总体上，≥10℃积温呈现出向高海拔扩张和高纬度北移的趋势。

关键词: 晋陕蒙, ≥10℃积温线, 空间插值, 气候带

Abstract: The spatial and temporal distribution of accumulated temperature ≥10℃ (AT10) was analyzed by using the multiple linear regression interpolation method, and linear trend line method based on the daily meteorological observed data from 75 meteorological stations in Shanxi province, Shaanxi province, Inner Mongolia autonomous region from 1960 to 2014. The results showed that: (1) from the analysis of whole period, the daily mean air temperature of AT10 increased at the rate of 74.60℃·d·10y-1 in Shanxi-Shaanxi-Inner Mongolia. The accumulated temperature increased obviously in 93% of the meteorological stations (P＜0.05), and only 7% of the meteorological stations was not obvious. (2) From the spatial distribution, AT10 in the whole region decreased with latitude increasing and altitude increasing. (3) From the moving condition of temperature line in each decades, the proportion of ＜1600℃·d, 1600～3200℃·d in the whole area of the region showed a trend of decreasing by decades; the proportion of 3200～4500℃·d in the whole area of the region showed a trend of increasing by decades; the proportion of ＞4500℃·d in the whole area of the region showed a trend of decreasing in 1970s and 1980s, and a trend of increasing in 1990s and 2000-2014. (4) From the change of climate zones between period Ⅰ(1960-1989) to period Ⅱ(1980-2014), a new central subtropical zone appeared obviously, north subtropical zone and warm temperature zone expanded gradually, and middle temperature zone and cold temperature zone narrowed gradually. As a whole, the AT10 showed the trend of expanding towards high latitude and high altitude.

Key words: Shanxi-Shaanxi-Inner Mongolia, The line of accumulated temperature above 10℃, Spatial interpolation, Climate zones

孟艳灵，殷淑燕，杨锋，周亚利. 晋陕蒙地区≥10℃积温的时空变化特征[J]. 中国农业气象, 2016, 37(06): 615-622.

MENG Yan-ling, YIN Shu-yan, YANG Feng, ZHOU Ya-li. Spatial and Temporal Distribution of Accumulated Temperature above 10℃ in Shanxi-Shaanxi-Inner Mongolia Region[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2016, 37(06): 615-622.

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