黄河流域干旱时空变化特征及其气候要素敏感性分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2016.06.002

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用黄河流域102个气象站点1961-2013年气象数据，选用相对湿润度指数作为干旱指标，探讨年尺度和季节尺度干旱的时空分布特征，并尝试利用偏导数方法计算分析相对湿润度指数的气候要素敏感性及其与气候要素间的相关关系。结果表明：黄河流域上游旱情比中游和下游地区偏重，春夏秋冬各季分别处于中旱、轻旱、中旱和特旱状态，全年尺度处于特旱程度，季节和全年尺度的相对湿润度指数均呈现从西北到东南递增的变化趋势，春季、秋季和全年尺度特旱区域主要分布在陕西、山西、宁夏北部以及内蒙古地区，而气象干旱减缓的站点主要分布在黄河流域上游地区，干旱增强的站点主要分布在黄河流域东南部。相对湿润度指数对太阳辐射和相对湿度呈正向敏感，对温度和风速呈负向敏感。上游和中游地区夏季相对湿润度指数最敏感要素分别为太阳辐射和平均温度，全流域春季、秋季、冬季和全年尺度对相对湿度最敏感。全流域春季和夏季与相对湿润度指数相关性最强的要素均为相对湿度，上游和下游地区秋季的主控要素为太阳辐射，上游、中游和下游地区冬季则分别与温度、风速和风速相关性最强。全年尺度上，上游、中游和下游地区相对湿润度指数变化的主控要素则为太阳辐射、相对湿度和相对湿度。

关键词: 相对湿润度指数, 气象干旱, 敏感要素, 主控要素, 气候变化, 黄河流域

Abstract: Investigation of the variation in drought and regional response to climate change is widely accepted to be very important for ecological security and agricultural production, and can provide basis information for developing appropriate measures to reduce droughts over the Yellow River Basin (YRB). In this study, the relative humidity index (M) was calculated from a data set of daily climate variables in 102 meteorological stations over the Yellow River Basin and in sequence, its sensitivity coefficients to key meteorological variables were firstly investigated using a partial derivative method. The results witnessed that the drought degree was detected to be stronger in the upper region than the middle and lower region. Moderate, slight, moderate and extra severe drought were found in spring, summer, autumn and winter respectively and extra severe drought was found in entire year. M was detected to increase from the northwest to the southeast region and the extra severe drought region was mainly located in Shaanxi, Shanxi, north Ningxia and Inner Mongolia. The meteorological stations whose relative humidity index increased were mainly located in the upper region, while in the southeast region of YRB. Accordingly, the M is proved to be positively sensitive to solar radiation (RS) and relative humidity (RH), while negatively sensitive to air temperature (T) and wind speed (WS). The M was most sensitive to RS and T for summer in upper and middle region respectively. Furthermore, the most sensitive variable turned to be RH for spring, autumn, winter and entire year in the whole basin. The declining of RH controlled a negative trend for M in spring and summer over the whole basin, while RS was primarily responsible for the change of M in autumn in upper and lower region respectively. However, the primarily controlling variable turned to be T, WS and WS for winter in upper, middle and lower region. As for the entire year, RS, RH and RH mainly governed M in upper, middle and lower basin respectively.

Key words: Relative humidity index, Meteorological drought, Sensitivity coefficient, Primarily controlling variable, Climate change, Yellow River Basin

刘勤，严昌荣，何文清. 黄河流域干旱时空变化特征及其气候要素敏感性分析[J]. 中国农业气象, 2016, 37(06): 623-632.

LIU Qin, YAN Chang-rong, HE Wen-qing. Drought Variation and Its Sensitivity Coefficients to Climatic Factors in the Yellow River Basin[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2016, 37(06): 623-632.

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