基于决策树和随机森林模型的湖北油菜产量限制因子分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2016.06.009

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用1961-2014年湖北省主产县油菜产量统计资料及同期气象观测资料，采用决策树和随机森林模型，对影响油菜产量的气候因子进行分析。结果表明：温度、日照时数及干旱、湿渍害对油菜产量均有不同程度的影响，且因生育期不同而存在差异。油菜开花期以前对低温敏感，开花期以后对高温敏感；苗期和蕾薹期对干旱较敏感，开花期和角果期对湿渍害更敏感；日照时数对油菜产量的影响受水分状况的制约，在干旱状况下日照偏多不利于产量形成，偏湿状况下则表现为日照越多越有利于产量形成。在各限制因子中，以湿渍害发生频率对油菜产量的影响最高，其次是干旱和冻害。湿渍害对产量的影响以高湿寡照的次生灾害影响较土壤偏湿的直接影响更大

关键词: 油菜, 气候因子, 湿渍害, 权重湿润指数, 非参数统计

Abstract:

Based on the county level census yield data as well as the corresponding weather observations during 1961-2014, yield limiting factors for oilseed rape in Hubei province were analyzed by employing two flexible nonparametric models such as Classification and Regression Trees (CART) and Random Forests model. The results showed that temperature, sunshine hours, as well as drought/waterlogging had significant effects on yield, and such impacts varied among different phenological stages. Oilseed rape was sensitive to low temperature before flowering while sensitive to high temperature from then on, and sensitive to drought during seedling and budding stages, while sensitive to waterlogging during flowering and podding stages, effect of sunshine hours was highly dependent on water condition, with a negative effect under water deficits, while a positive effect when there was excess rainfall. Among all the limiting factors, waterlogging had the highest occurrence frequency, followed by drought and cold damage. Waterlogging reduced yield directly by limiting root aerobic respiration, as well as decreased in photosynthesis and increased in disease incidence due to absence of sunshine and high humidity, and the latter was more important.

Key words: Oilseed rape, Climatic factors, Waterlogging, Weighted moisture index, Non-parametric statistics

秦鹏程，刘志雄，万素琴，苏荣瑞，黄敬峰. 基于决策树和随机森林模型的湖北油菜产量限制因子分析[J]. 中国农业气象, 2016, 37(06): 691-699.

QIN Peng-cheng, LIU Zhi-xiong, WAN Su-qin, SU Rong-rui, HUANG Jing-feng. Identification of Yield Limiting Factors for Oilseed Rape in Hubei Province Based on CART and Random Forest Model[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2016, 37(06): 691-699.

参考文献

[1]谭筱玉,程勇,郑普英,等.油菜湿害及耐湿性机理研究进展[J].中国油料作物学报,2011,33(3):307-310. Tan X Y,Cheng Y,Zheng P Y,et al.Research progress on water logging resistance in rapeseed(Brassica napus L.)[J].Chinese Journal of Oil Crop Sciences,2011,33(3):307-310.(in Chinese) [2]涂玉琴,戴兴临.花期低温阴雨对甘蓝型油菜产量和种子含油量的影响[J].中国油料作物学报,2011,33(5):470-475. Tu Y Q,Dai X L.Effects of continuous low temperature overcast and rainy weather on yield and oil content of Brassica napus during flowering stage[J].Chinese Journal of Oil Crop Sciences,2011,33(5):470-475.(in Chinese) [3]宋丰萍,胡立勇,周广生,等.渍水时间对油菜生长及产量的影响[J].作物学报,2010,36(1):170-176. Song F P,Hu L Y,Zhou G S,et al.Effects of waterlogging time on rapeseed (Brassica napus L.) growth and yield[J].Acta Agronomica Sinica,2010,36(1):170-176.(in Chinese) [4]朱建强,程伦国,吴立仁,等.油菜持续受渍试验研究[J].农业工程学报,2005,21(增1):63-67. Zhu J Q,Cheng L G,Wu L R,et al.Experimental study on rape suffering from continuous subsurface waterlogging[J].Trans actions of the CSAE,2005,21(Suppl 1):63-67.(in Chinese) [5]李玲,张春雷,张树杰,等.渍水对冬油菜苗期生长及生理的影响[J].中国油料作物学报,2011,33(3):247-252. Li L,Zhang C L,Zhang S J,et al.Effects of waterlogging on growth and physiological changes of winter rapeseed seedling(Brassica napus L.)[J].Chinese Journal of Oil Crop Sciences,2011,33(3):247-252.(in Chinese) [6]曹宏鑫,杨太明,蒋跃林,等.花期渍害胁迫下冬油菜生长及产量模拟研究[J].中国农业科技导报,2015,(1):137-145. Cao H X,Yang T M,Jiang Y L,et al.Studies on simulation of winter rapeseed(Brassica napus L.) growth and yield under water-logging stress at anthesis[J].Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology,2015,(1):137-145.(in Chinese) [7]马晓群,陈晓艺,盛绍学.安徽省冬小麦渍涝灾害损失评估模型研究[J].自然灾害学报,2003,12(1):158-162. Ma X Q,Chen X Y,Sheng S X.Models of evaluating waterlogging loss of winter wheat in Anhui Province [J]. Journal of Natural Disasters,2003,12(1): 158-162. (in Chinese) [8]盛绍学,石磊,张玉龙.江淮地区冬小麦渍害指标与风险评估模型研究[J].中国农学通报,2009,25(19):263-268. Sheng S X,Shi L,Zhang Y L.Study on waterlogging disaster index and risk assessment model of winter wheat in Jianghuai region[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2009,25(19): 263-268.(in Chinese) [9]吴洪颜,高苹,徐为根,等.江苏省冬小麦湿渍害的风险区划[J].生态学报,2012,32(6):1871-1879. Wu H Y,Gao P,Xu W G,et al.Risk division on winter wheat suffering from spring wet damages in Jiangsu Province [J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2012,32(6):1871-1879.(in Chinese) [10]Krupnik T J,Ahmed Z U,Timsina J,et al.Untangling crop management and environmental influences on wheat yield variability in Bangladesh:an application of non-parametric approaches[J].Agricultural Systems,2015,139:166-179. [11]Cutler D R,Edwards Jr T C,Beard K H,et al.Random forests for classification in ecology[J].Ecology,2007,88 (11): 2783- 2792. [12]陈斐,杨沈斌,申双和,等.基于主成分回归法的长江中下游双季早稻相对气象产量模拟模型[J].中国农业气象, 2014,35(5): 522-528. Chen F,Yang S B,Shen S H,et al.Simulation model of relative meteorological yield of double-cropping early rice in middle and lower reaches of Yangtze river based on principal component regression[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2014, 35(5):522-528.(in Chinese) [13]Breiman L,Friedman J,Stone C J,et al.Classification and regression trees[M].CRC Press,1984. [14]Breiman L.Random forests[J].Machine Learning,2001,45 (1):5-32. [15]钟燕,熊秋芳,雷建华.湖北省油菜产业发展现状与对策[J].中国农技推广,2010,26(3):8-10. Zhong Y,Xiong Q F,Lei J H.Current situation and countermeasures of rape production in Hubei Province[J]. China Agricultural Technology Extension,2010, 26 (3):8-10. (in Chinese) [16]陆魁东,彭莉莉,黃晚华.气候变化背景下湖南油菜气象灾害风险评估[J].中国农业气象,2013,34(2):191-196. Lu K D,Peng L L,Huang W H.Meteorological disaster risk assessment of oilseed rape under climate change conditions[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2013,34 (2): 191-196. (in Chinese) [17]宋迎波,王建林,陈晖,等.中国油菜产量动态预报方法研究[J].气象,2008,34(3):93-99. Song Y B,Wang J L,Chen H,et al.Methodology on dynamical prediction of rape yield in China[J].Meteorological Monthly, 2008,34(3):93-99.(in Chinese) [18]梁轶,李星敏,周辉,等.陕西油菜生态气候适宜性分析与精细化区划[J].中国农业气象,2013,34(1):50-57. Liang Y,Li X M,Zhou H,et al.Analyzing and zoning of eco-climate suitability of oilseed rape in Shaanxi Province[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2013,34(1): 50-57.(in Chinese) [19]吴利红,娄伟平,柳苗,等.油菜花期降水适宜度变化趋势及风险评估[J].中国农业科学,2011,44(3):620-626. Wu L H,Lou W P,Liu M,et al.Changes of precipitation suitability and assessment of yield loss risk of cole at flowering period[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,2011,44(3): 620-626.(in Chinese) [20]Lu E.Determining the start,duration,and strength of flood and drought with daily precipitation:rationale[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2009,36(12):L12707. [21]赵一磊,任福民,李栋梁,等.基于有效降水干旱指数的改进研究[J].气象,2013,39(5):600-607. Zhao Y L,Ren F M,Li D L,et al.Study on improvement of drought index based on effective precipitation[J]. Meteorological Monthly,2013,39(5):600-607.(in Chinese) [22]秦鹏程,刘敏,李兰.有效降水指数在暴雨洪涝监测和评估中的应用[J].中国农业气象,2016,37(1):84-90. Qin P C,Liu M,Li L.Application of effective precipitation index in rainstorm flood disaster monitoring and assessment[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2016,37 (1):84-90.(in Chinese) [23]秦鹏程,刘敏,刘志雄,等.湖北省潜在蒸散估算模型对比[J].干旱气象,2014,32(3):334-339. Qin P C,Liu M,Liu Z X,et al.Comparison of models for estimating potential evapotranspiration in Hubei Province[J]. Journal of Arid Meteorology,2014,32(3):334-339. (in Chinese) [24]Therneau T,Atkinson B,Ripley B.Rpart:recursive partitioning and regression trees,version 4.1-10[OL]. 2015.https:// CRAN.R-project.org/package=rpart. [25]Liaw A,Wiener M.Classification and regression by random forest[J].R News,2002,2(3):18-22. [26]Justes E,Denoroy P,Gabrielle B,et al.Effect of crop nitrogen status and temperature on the radiation use efficiency of winter oilseed rape[J].European Journal of Agronomy,2000, 13(2):165-177. [27]汤亮,朱艳,孙小芳,等.油菜光合作用与干物质积累的动态模拟模型[J].作物学报,2007,33(2):189-195. Tang L,Zhu Y,Sun X F,et al.Dynamic simulation model for photosynthesis and dry matter accumulation in rapeseed[J].Acta Agronomica Sinica,2007,33(2):189-195.(in Chinese) [28]温克刚.中国气象灾害大典(湖北卷)[M].北京:气象出版社,2007. Wen K G.Meteorological disasters in China(Hubei Province)[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,2007.(in Chinese) [29]Boem F H G,Lavado R S,Porcelli C A.Note on the effects of winter and spring waterlogging on growth,chemical composition and yield of rapeseed[J].Field Crops Research, 1996,47(2):175-179. [30]黄毓华,武金岗,高苹.淮河以南春季三麦阴湿害的判别方法[J].中国农业气象,2000,21(1):23-26. Huang Y H,Wu J G,Gao P.The method for identification of spring cloudy-moist hazard of wheat in the region to the south of Huaihe river[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2000,21(1):23-26.(in Chinese) [31]霍治国,盛绍学,贺楠,等.QX/T 107-2009 冬小麦、油菜涝渍等级[S].北京:气象出版社,2009. Huo Z G,Sheng S X,He N,et al.Grade of waterlogging for winter wheat and rape[S].Beijing:China Meteorological Press, 2009.(in Chinese)