特困地区自然灾害脆弱性及其致贫效应的调查分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2017.08.007

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为揭示市场化反贫困进程中农户的自然灾害脆弱性及其致贫效应，厘清精准扶贫工作优先序，本文采用滇桂黔石漠化地区和秦巴山区连片特困地区的农户调查数据，对农户灾害风险的感知情况进行分析，并通过熵值法和Probit模型评估农户的自然灾害脆弱性和市场风险脆弱性。通过对二者致贫效应进行对比研究后发现，相较于市场风险，自然灾害尤其旱涝等气象灾害是农户面临的主要威胁。农户自然灾害脆弱性程度更高，说明与市场风险相比，自然灾害对其造成损失的可能性更大。自然灾害脆弱性程度提高会显著增加农户陷入贫困的可能性，其致贫效应强于市场风险脆弱性，但两者致贫效应存在着统计意义上的此消彼长关系。可见，自然灾害致贫问题仍然不容忽视，应将提高特困地区农村抗灾减灾能力摆在首要位置，并促进小农户与大市场的有效对接，惟此方可实现特困地区农户精准脱贫和稳定发展。

关键词: 农户, 贫困, Probit, 气象灾害, 市场风险

Abstract: In order to explore the natural disaster vulnerability of farmers and its poverty-causing effect in the process of marketization to find the primary point in taking targeted measures in poverty alleviation. Based on the rural survey data of contiguous poor areas in Guangxi and Shaanxi, this paper analyzed farmers’ perception about various disaster risks, evaluated farmers’ vulnerability to natural disaster and market risk. Then the article conducted a comparative study on the poverty-causing effect of natural disaster vulnerability and market risk vulnerability through the Entropy method and Probit model. The results showed that:（1）the farmers’ perception level on the natural disaster is higher than the market risk, which indicates that natural disasters, especially droughts and floods, are the main threats to farmers.（2）Farmers’ natural disaster vulnerability is higher than the market risk vulnerability, which showing that natural disasters are more likely to cause losses than market risks for farmers.（3）The raise of natural disaster vulnerability level will significantly increase the possibility of farmers’ dropping into poverty, its effect to cause poverty is stronger than the market risk vulnerability. But the effect of natural disaster vulnerability is negatively related to market risk vulnerability statistically. Therefore, the poverty caused by natural disasters cannot be ignored, and in order to lift farmers in contiguous poor areas from poverty, it is supposed to take improving the ability of rural disaster mitigation in the first place, and then to promote small farmers participating in big market effectively.

Key words: Farmers, Poverty, Probit, Meteorological disaster, Market risk

颜廷武，张童朝，张俊飚. 特困地区自然灾害脆弱性及其致贫效应的调查分析[J]. 中国农业气象, 2017, 38(08): 526-536.

YAN Ting-wu, ZHANG Tong-chao, ZHANG Jun-biao. Research on Natural Disaster Vulnerability and Its Poverty-Causing Effect in Contiguous Poor Rural Areas[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2017, 38(08): 526-536.

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