基于积温产量模型确定山东夏玉米拔节前后的极端高温阈值

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2017.12.006

中国农业气象 ›› 2017, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (12): 795-800.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2017.12.006

基于积温产量模型确定山东夏玉米拔节前后的极端高温阈值

张琪，唐婕，冯一淳，张艺璇，蔡成良

1．南京信息工程大学应用气象学院，南京 210024；2．江苏省农业气象重点实验室，南京 210024

收稿日期:2017-06-04 出版日期:2017-12-20 发布日期:2017-12-22
作者简介:张琪（1986-），女，博士，研究方向为农业气象灾害风险评估。E-mail：zhangq861206@126.com
基金资助:
江苏省基础研究计划（自然科学基金）青年基金项目（BK20150898）；公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201506001-06）；国家自然科学基金项目（41501553；41571491）；公益性行业（气象）科研专项储备项目（2015001）

Determination of Extreme High Temperature Thresholds before and after Summer Corn Jointing Stage in Shandong Based on Accumulated Temperature-Yield Model

ZHANG Qi, TANG Jie, FENG Yi-chun, ZHANG Yi-xuan, CAI Cheng-liang

1. College of Applied Meteorology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210024, China; 2. Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology, Nanjing 210024

Received:2017-06-04 Online:2017-12-20 Published:2017-12-22

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 参考已有的积温-产量模型方法，利用山东省10个气象站点1983-2012年逐日最高气温、最低气温数据模拟其间逐小时温度，分拔节前和拔节后两个时段确定山东省夏玉米的极端高温阈值，并对研究区极端高温事件的时空分布特征进行分析。结果表明：夏玉米生育期温度主要分布在17～35℃区间，拔节后不同温度持续时长较大；有效积温转化为实际产量的比例系数有随时间增大的趋势；山东省夏玉米拔节前、后两个阶段极端高温阈值分别为35.2℃和34.5℃；基于此阈值统计的极端高温发生日数由西部平原地区向东部沿海半岛地区减少，拔节后较拔节前频发，研究期内极端高温发生日数有随时间增多的趋势。

关键词: 极端高温阈值, 积温产量模型, 夏玉米, 拔节

Abstract: By using accumulated temperature-yield model, the hourly temperature was simulated based on daily temperature from 10 meteorological stations in Shandong province from 1983 to 2012. Then the extreme high temperature thresholds both before and after summer corn jointing stage were determined, and the spatial and temporal distribution of extreme high temperature events was analyzed. The results showed that temperature were in 17-35℃ during summer corn growing season, and the duration of each temperature after jointing was larger than that of before jointing. The proportional coefficient of effective accumulated temperature converting into actual yield increased during 1983-2012. The threshold of extreme high temperature before and after summer corn jointing stage was 35.2℃ and 34.5℃ respectively. The regional extreme high temperature days decreased from western to eastern in Shandong province, which was higher after jointing stage than that of before jointing stage. The extreme high temperature days increased gradually during the research period.

Key words: Extreme high temperature threshold, Accumulated temperature-yield model, Summer corn, Jointing stage

张琪，唐婕，冯一淳，张艺璇，蔡成良. 基于积温产量模型确定山东夏玉米拔节前后的极端高温阈值[J]. 中国农业气象, 2017, 38(12): 795-800.

ZHANG Qi, TANG Jie, FENG Yi-chun, ZHANG Yi-xuan, CAI Cheng-liang. Determination of Extreme High Temperature Thresholds before and after Summer Corn Jointing Stage in Shandong Based on Accumulated Temperature-Yield Model[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2017, 38(12): 795-800.

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基于积温产量模型确定山东夏玉米拔节前后的极端高温阈值

Determination of Extreme High Temperature Thresholds before and after Summer Corn Jointing Stage in Shandong Based on Accumulated Temperature-Yield Model

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