环境因子对山区粮食气候产量的影响——以云南省为例

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.04.014

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 高原山区土地资源短缺、人地矛盾突出，应对气候变化的能力尤为脆弱，探讨高原山区环境因子对粮食气候产量的影响，可为山区土地资源的合理利用和保护提供科学依据。本文利用云南省各县1985-2012年平均粮食单产数据，采用生物模型Logistic函数模拟趋势产量，以计算气候产量。提取同时期气候、地形、土壤等17个环境因子，利用相关分析、冗余分析（Redundancy analysis，RDA）等统计分析方法探究环境因子对山区气候产量的定量影响。结果表明：研究区多年平均气候产量为-0.15～-0.01t·hm-2，且研究时段内呈降低趋势；气候产量与土壤全钾含量呈极显著负相关，与坡度、坡向呈极显著正相关，与其它14个环境因子无显著相关性。RDA分析结果表明，坡度、坡向、土壤碳氮比、气温、土壤pH、土壤全钾含量6个环境变量为最小解释变量组合。坡度是影响山区粮食生产的关键性环境因子之一，与粮食实际产量呈负相关，而与气候产量呈正相关。坡度单因子可解释44.62%的粮食实际产量、26.29%气候产量的变化。从研究结果看，气候产量相对较高的地区通过坡改梯、土壤培肥等手段提高粮食单产是气候变化前提下维持区域粮食生产安全的有效途径。

关键词: 气候变化, 气候产量, 冗余分析（RDA）, 环境因子, 云南

Abstract: The shortage of agricultural land resources in mountainous area leads to an inevitable conflict between human and land, which responses particularly for the vulnerability of crop yield in the mountainous area under the climate change conditions. To study the effects of environmental factors on climatic yield may provide a scientific basis for the rational utilization and protection of the land resources in mountainous area. A case study was focused in the Yunnan Province in this paper, grain yield per unit area of 122 counties from the year 1985 to 2012 were collected, biological simulation model was used to simulate the trend of yield and calculate climatic yield, seventeen environmental factors were extracted from each country during the same period. Correlation analysis and redundancy analysis (RDA) were used to analyze the quantitative impact of environmental factors on climatic grain yield. The results showed that the unit area climatic yield varied between -0.15 and -0.01t·ha-1 with a reduction tendency with the increasing of time in the study area. A significantly negative correlation was found between the soil total potassium, while a significant positive correlation between slope, aspect and climatic yield. There was no statistically significant correlation between climatic yield and other 14 environmental factors. Redundancy analysis showed that slope, aspect, soil carbon and nitrogen ratio, temperature, soil pH and TK were the minimum variables combination which could explain 44.6% variation of grain yield. Slope gradient was one of the most important environmental influential factors, which could explain 44.62% of grain actual yield and 26.29% climatic yield per unit area’s variation. In higher climatic yield region by transforming slope into terrace, improving soil fertility and other means to increase grain yield is an effective way to protect the regional grain production safety under the premise of climate change.

Key words: Climate change, Climatic yield, Redundancy analysis, Environmental factors, Yunnan Province

顾治家，白致威，段兴武，丁剑宏，冯德泰，师小宁，韩絮. 环境因子对山区粮食气候产量的影响——以云南省为例[J]. 中国农业气象, 2015, 36(04): 497-505.

GU Zhi-jia, BAI Zhi-wei, DUAN Xing-wu, DING Jian-hong, FENG De-tai, SHI Xiao-ning, HAN Xu. Quantitative Effects of Environmental Factors on Climatic Yield in the Mountainous Area—A Case Study in Yunnan Province[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2015, 36(04): 497-505.

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