中国农业气象 ›› 2022, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (04): 251-261.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2022.04.001

• 农业气候资源与气候变化栏目 •    下一篇

全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃情景下贵州省极端降水的变化特征

张娇艳,李霄,陈早阳,李扬,周涛   

  1. 1.贵州省气候中心,贵阳 550002;2.贵州省山地气候与资源重点实验室,贵阳 550002;3.贵州省贵阳市气象局,贵阳 550001
  • 收稿日期:2021-07-07 出版日期:2022-04-20 发布日期:2022-04-18
  • 通讯作者: 李扬,副研级高级工程师,主要从事气候变化研究工作,E-mail: lyon81504687@163.com E-mail:lyon81504687@163.com
  • 作者简介:张娇艳,E-mail:mylove813jiaojiao@163.com
  • 基金资助:
    贵州省气象局科研业务项目[黔气科登(2021)01−07号

Variation of Extreme Precipitation over Guizhou under the Global Warming of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃

ZHANG Jiao-yan, LI Xiao, CHEN Zao-yang, LI Yang, ZHOU Tao   

  1. 1. Guizhou Climate Center, Guiyang 550002, China; 2. Guizhou Key Lab of Mountainous Climate and Resources, Guiyang 550002; 3.Guiyang Meteorological Bureau, Guiyang 550001
  • Received:2021-07-07 Online:2022-04-20 Published:2022-04-18

摘要: 利用CCSM4和IPSL-CM5A-MR模式1961-2005年历史模拟和2006−2098年RCP2.6和RCP4.5排放情景下的逐日降水以及1961−2005年贵州省84个气象台站逐日降水资料,使用偏差校正改善模式模拟能力,通过降水强度、日最大降水量和强降水量等9个指标探究全球升温1.5℃和2.0℃条件下贵州省极端降水变化特征。结果表明:贵州省RCP2.6和RCP4.5情景下各极端降水指数虽然波动幅度较大,但总体上均呈现增加的趋势,且相对于基准期(1986−2005年)而言全球升温2.0℃时各极端降水指数增幅约为升温1.5℃时的两倍。在升温2.0℃下9个极端降水指数概率密度曲线尾端均向右延伸,表明在升温2.0℃情景下各极端降水指数中高值出现的概率增大。因此,将全球升温控制在1.5℃而不是2.0℃意义重大。

关键词: 气候变化, 贵州省, 升温1.5℃, 升温2.0℃, 极端降水

Abstract: Guizhou province suffered frequently from natural hazards induced by severe weathers. It was necessary to investigate the features of extreme precipitation under the global warming scenarios quantitatively and scientifically to keep the relocated groups away from returning to the poverty due to disasters. Based on the daily precipitation of historical simulation from 1961 to 2005 and under RCP2.6/RCP4.5 emission scenarios during 2006−2098 from CCSM4/ IPSL-CM5A-MR modes, as well as daily precipitation data of 84 meteorological stations over Guizhou from 1961 to 2005, the characteristics of extreme precipitation changes in Guizhou under the global warming of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ were explored through 9 indicators including precipitation intensity, daily maximum precipitation and heavy precipitation, using bias correction to improve the simulation capabilities. It was demonstrated that the extreme precipitation indices in RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5 scenarios over Guizhou had a large fluctuation range, but uprising trend could be found. Of more interest was that the increase approximately doubled under the scenario of 2.0℃-warming comparing to 1.5℃-warming, which were based on extreme precipitation indices from 1986−2005. The tail ends of the probability density curves of the 9 indies all extended to the right at 2.0℃, indicating that more extreme precipitation events might occur under the scenario of 2.0℃-warming. Therefore, it was essential to make control on the global warming and keep the warming within 1.5℃.

Key words: Climate change, Guizhou, Global warming of 1.5℃, Global warming of 2.0℃, Extreme precipitation