关键词: 气候变化, 贵州省, 升温1.5℃, 升温2.0℃, 极端降水

Abstract: Guizhou province suffered frequently from natural hazards induced by severe weathers. It was necessary to investigate the features of extreme precipitation under the global warming scenarios quantitatively and scientifically to keep the relocated groups away from returning to the poverty due to disasters. Based on the daily precipitation of historical simulation from 1961 to 2005 and under RCP2.6/RCP4.5 emission scenarios during 2006−2098 from CCSM4/ IPSL-CM5A-MR modes, as well as daily precipitation data of 84 meteorological stations over Guizhou from 1961 to 2005, the characteristics of extreme precipitation changes in Guizhou under the global warming of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ were explored through 9 indicators including precipitation intensity, daily maximum precipitation and heavy precipitation, using bias correction to improve the simulation capabilities. It was demonstrated that the extreme precipitation indices in RCP 2.6 and RCP 4.5 scenarios over Guizhou had a large fluctuation range, but uprising trend could be found. Of more interest was that the increase approximately doubled under the scenario of 2.0℃-warming comparing to 1.5℃-warming, which were based on extreme precipitation indices from 1986−2005. The tail ends of the probability density curves of the 9 indies all extended to the right at 2.0℃, indicating that more extreme precipitation events might occur under the scenario of 2.0℃-warming. Therefore, it was essential to make control on the global warming and keep the warming within 1.5℃.

Key words: Climate change, Guizhou, Global warming of 1.5℃, Global warming of 2.0℃, Extreme precipitation