关键词: 青海高原, 气候生产潜力, 新气候态, Thornthwaite Memorial模型, Hurst指数

Abstract:

Based on the temperature and precipitation data from 50 meteorological stations on the Qinghai plateau from 1991 to 2022, the climate resources and climatic productive potential of the Qinghai plateau were evaluated by using the Miami and Thornthwaite Memorial models, mathematical statistics and R/S analysis under the background of the new climatic state. The results showed that: (1)the overall climate of the Qinghai plateau in the new climate state tended to be warm and humid, with an annual average temperature trend rate of 0.46℃·10 y⁻¹(P<0.01), with a significant warming in Tongde. The climate tendency rate of annual precipitation was 23.6mm·10y⁻¹(P<0.01), and there was a significant increase in humidity in Guinan. (2)The climate tendency rate of climatic productive potential on the Qinghai plateau was 27.7g·m⁻²·10y⁻¹(P<0.01), showing a significant upward trend. In addition, there were significant spatial differences in the climatic productive potential of the Qinghai plateau. (3)The increase in climatic productive potential was related to increase temperatures and precipitation. The climate warming and humidification were conducive to the increase in climatic productive potential. (4)The variation characteristics of the spatiotemporal distribution of climatic productive potential on the Qinghai plateau were closer to the trend of precipitation and precipitation was the most important factor affecting climatic productive potential. (5)The Hurst indices for average temperature, annual precipitation and climatic productive potential on the Qinghai plateau were 0.48, 0.28 and 0.36, respectively. The future trend was opposite to the past, and the climate may tend to be cold and dry, resulting in a continuous decline in climatic productive potential.

Key words: Qinghai plateau, Climatic productive potential, New climate state, Thornthwaite Memorial model, Hurst index