关键词: 夏蝗, 气象因子, 关键时预报

Abstract: The outbreak forecast of the summer locust plays an important role in the decision-making of the summer locust prevention and control.The key meteorological factors affecting summer locust outbreak were selected by using Spearman Order Correlation methods.According to Bayesian rule,the best critical departure from normal value of the key meteorological factors for the outbreak of summer locust was determined by two kinds of ecological area.Using the disaster key time prediction method,the sensitivity of key years affected by meteorological factors was analyzed and the best factors of forecasting for summer locust outbreak in two kinds of ecological area were determined.Based on these,the modeling and the forecasting of summer locust outbreak were carried out for two different ecological regions in Hebei Province.The result was satisfied with the accuracy of modeling over 99%.The forecast was consistent with the real conditions in 2004 and 2005 respectively.

Key words: Summer locust, Summer locust, Meteorological factors, Key time forecast, Locust