四川省潜在蒸散量变化及其气候影响因素分析

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2017.09.002

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 潜在蒸散（ET0）是评价某一地区干旱程度的重要指标，在全球气候变暖趋势下，估计ET0的变化对科学估算作物需水量，提高水分利用率具有重大意义。本文利用四川省1961-2014年151个气象站的气象资料，采用Penman-Monteith公式分3个区域（四川盆地、攀西地区和川西高原）计算ET0，并对主要气象因子平均气温、相对湿度、日照时数、平均风速的相对变化率、敏感系数及其对ET0贡献率的时空变化进行分析。结果表明：四川盆地和川西高原ET0呈现微弱减少，而攀西地区则呈现一定的增加，其空间分布表现为：攀西地区和川西高原南部年ET0为高值区，多在1000～1350mm，四川盆地的西南部年ET0为低值区，多在651～900mm，从西南向东北呈现“高-低-高”趋势。各气象因子对ET0的影响（对ET0变化的贡献率）主要取决于敏感性和相对变化率两方面。3个区域ET0对相对湿度的变化均表现最敏感，其敏感系数分别为-1.13、-1.40、-1.53。在主要气象因子中，在四川盆地和攀西地区，平均风速的多年相对变化率最大（-29.7%、-16.3%），川西高原则为平均温度（40.4%）。进一步分析得出，平均风速在四川盆地和川西高原对ET0变化的贡献率最大，是主导影响因素，而在攀西地区则为相对湿度。

关键词: 潜在蒸散, 气象因子, 敏感系数, 贡献率

Abstract: Potential evapotranspiration(ET0) is an important metric in measuring drought conditions for an area. Examining ET0 changes is critical for estimating crop water demand, and thus it is crucial for improving water use efficiency in the context of global warming. Based on daily meteorological data of 151 meteorological stations in Sichuan province from 1961 to 2014, the authors calculated ET0 with the Penman-Monteith formula for the three terrain regions of Sichuan: Sichuan basin, Panxi region and Western Sichuan Plateau, and also analyzed relative variation and sensitivity coefficients of the major meteorological factors (i.e., mean air temperature, relative humidity, radiation hours, and mean wind speed), and the spatiotemporal changes in their contribution to ET0 changes. The results showed that ET0 in the Sichuan basin and the Western Sichuan Plateau presented a weak declining trend, as opposed to an increasing trend in Panxi region. In terms of spatial distribution, ET0 was high in the Panxi region and the Western Sichuan Plateau (1000-1350mm·y-1), and it was low in the southwestern Sichuan Plateau (651-900mm·y-1), with a decreasing and then increasing gradient of ET0 from the southwest to northeast. The effect of each meteorological factor on ET0(i.e., contribution of each meteorological factor to ET0 change) was determined by their sensitivity to ET0 and relative variation. ET0 was most sensitive to relative humidity across the three regions, with sensitivity coefficients of -1.13, -1.40, -1.53, respectively. Among all the meteorological factors, the variable with the highest long-term relative variation was mean wind speed in Sichuan basin (-29.7%) and Panxi region (-16.3%), in contrast to mean air temperature in Western Sichuan Plateau (40.4%). Further analyses suggested that the dominant factor determining ET0 for Sichuan basin and Western Sichuan Plateau was mean wind speed, and that for Panxi region was relative humidity.

Key words: Potential evapotranspiration, Meteorological factors, Sensitivity coefficient, Contribution rate

陈东东，王晓东，王森，栗晓玮. 四川省潜在蒸散量变化及其气候影响因素分析[J]. 中国农业气象, 2017, 38(09): 548-557.

CHEN Dong-dong, WANG Xiao-dong,WANG Sen, LI Xiao-wei. Potential Evapotranspiration Changes and its Effects of Meteorological Factors across Sichuan Province[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2017, 38(09): 548-557.

参考文献

[1]尹云鹤,吴绍洪,戴尔阜.1971-2008年我国潜在蒸散时空演变的归因[J].科学通报,2010,55(22):2226-2234. Yin Y H,Wu S H,Dai E F.Determining factors in potential evapotranspiration changes over China in the period 1971-2008[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2010, 55(22): 2226- 2234. (in Chinese) [2]FAO.Crop evapotranspiration guidelines for computing crop water requirements[R].Rome:Food and Agriculture or Ganization, 1998. [3]Chen D,Gao G,Xu C Y,et al.Comparison of Thornthwaite method and pan data with the standard Penman- Monteithestimates of potential evapotranspiration for China[J]. Climate Research,2005,28:123-132. [4]马宁,王乃昂,王鹏龙,等.黑河流域参考蒸散量的时空变化特征及影响因素的定量分析[J].自然资源学报,2012, 27(6): 975-989. Ma N,Wang N A,Wang P L,et al.Temporal and spatial variation characteristics and quantification of the affect factors for reference evapotranspiration in Heihe River Basin[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2012,27(6): 975-989. (in Chinese) [5]曹雯,申双和,段春锋.中国西北潜在蒸散时空演变特征及其定量化成因[J].生态学报,2012,32(11):3394-3403. Cao W,Shen S H,Duan C F.Temporal-spatial variations of potential evapotranspiration and quantification of the causes in Northwest China[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2012,32(11): 3394-3403.(in Chinese) [6]李春强,洪克勤,李保国.河北省近35年(1965-1999)参考作物蒸散量的时空变化分析[J].中国农业气象,2008,29(4): 414-419. Li C Q,Hong K Q,Li B G.Analysis of temporal spatial variations of reference evapotranspiration during 1965 to1999 in Hebei Province[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2008,29(4):414-419.(in Chinese) [7]刘园,王颖,杨晓光.华北平原参考作物蒸散量变化特征及气候影响因素[J].生态学报,2010,30(4):923-932. Liu Y,Wang Y,Yang X G.Trends in reference crop evapotranspiration and possible climatic factors in the North China Plain[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2010,30(4):923-932.(in Chinese) [8]王潇潇,潘学标,顾生浩,等.内蒙古地区参考作物蒸散变化特征及其气象影响因子[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(增刊1):142-152. Wang X X,Pan X B,Gu S H,et al.Trend in reference crop evapotranspiration and meteorological factors affecting trends in Inner Mongolia[J].Transactions of the CSAE,2015, 31(Supp1):142-152.(in Chinese) [9]谢贤群,王菱.中国北方近50年潜在蒸散量的变化[J].自然资源学报,2007,22(5):683-691. Xie X Q,Wang L.Changes of potential evaporation in Northern China over the past 50 years[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2007,22(5):683-691.(in Chinese) [10]刘小莽,郑红星,刘昌明,等.海河流域潜在蒸散发的气候敏感性分析[J].资源科学,2009,31(9):1470-1476. Liu X M,Zheng H X,Liu C M,et al.Sensitivity of the potential evapotranspiration to key climatic variables in the Haihe River Basin[J].Resources Science,2009,31(9): 1470-1476.(in Chinese) [11]杨林山,李常斌,王帅兵,等.洮河流域潜在蒸散发的气候敏感性分析[J].农业工程学报,2014,30(11):102-109. Yang L S,Li C B,Wang S B,et al.Sensitive analysis of potential evapotranspiration to key climatic factors in Taohe River Basin[J].Transactions of the CSAE,2014, 30(11): 102-109.(in Chinese) [12]董旭光,顾伟宗,王静,等.影响山东参考作物蒸散量变化的气象因素定量分析[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(5):810-823. Dong X G,Gu Z W,Wang J,et al.Quantitative analysis of climate factors for potential evapotranspiration changes in Shandong[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2015, 30(5): 810-823.(in Chinese) [13]梁丽乔,李丽娟,张丽,等.松嫩平原西部生长季参考作物蒸散发的敏感性分析[J].农业工程学报,2008,24(5):1-5. Liang L Q,Li L J,Zhang L,et al.Sensitivity of the reference crop evapotranspiration in growing season in the West Songnen Plain[J].Transactions of the CSAE,2008, 24(5): 1-5.(in Chinese) [14]赵彩霞,梅旭荣,居辉,等.黄淮海平原各农业亚区潜在蒸散量变化及其对气候要素的敏感性分析[J].中国农业气象,2015,36(5):570-577. Zhao C X,Mei X R,Ju H,et al.Variation in potential evapotranspiration and its sensitivity coefficients to climatic factors in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2015,36(5):570-577.(in Chinese) [15]陈淑全.四川气候[M].成都:四川科学技术出版社,1997. Chen S Q.Climate of the Sichuan[M].Chengdu:Sichuan Science and Technical Press,1997.(in Chinese) [16]陈超,庞艳梅,潘学标,等.四川地区参考作物蒸散量的变化特征及影响因素分析[J].中国农业气象,2011,32(1):35-40. Chen C,Pang Y M,Pan X B,et al.Analysis on change of reference crop evapotranspiration and climatic influence factors in Sichuan[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2011,32(1):35-40.(in Chinese) [17]李思思,张飞云,白磊,等北疆地区生长季参考作物蒸散量的时空变化特征及其敏感性分析[J].中国农业气象, 2015,36(6):683-691. Li S S,Zhang F Y,Bai L,et al.Spatiotemporal variation and sensitivity of reference crop evapotranspiration during growth season in Northern Xinjiang[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2015,36(6):683-691.(in Chinese) [18]王晓东,马晓群,许莹,等.淮河流域参考作物蒸散量变化特征及主要因子的贡献分析[J].中国农业气象,2013, 34(6):661-667. Wang X D,Ma X Q,Xu Y,et al.Variation of reference crop evapotranspiration and contribution of main factors in the Huaihe Basin[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2013,34(6):661-667.(in Chinese) [19]李英杰,延军平,王鹏涛.北方农牧交错带参考作物蒸散量时空变化与成因分析[J].中国农业气象,2016, 37(2):166-173 Li Y J,Yan J P,Wang P T.Temporal and spatial change and causes analysis of the reference crop evapotranspiration in farming-pastroral ecotone of northern China[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2016,37(2):166-173.(in Chinese) [20]陈东东,程路,栗晓玮,等.基于地统计学的四川省降雨侵蚀力时空分布特征[J].生态学杂志,2014,33(1):206-213. Chen D D,Cheng L,Li X W,et al.Spatiotemporal distribution of rainfall erosivity based on geostatistics of Sichuan Province[J].Chinese Journal Ecology,2014,33(1):206-213. (in Chinese) [21]任国玉,吴虹,陈正洪.我国降水变化趋势的空间特征[J].应用气象学报,2000,11(3):322-330. Ren G Y,Wu H,Chen Z H.Spatial patterns of change trend in rainfall of China[J].Quarterly Journal of Applied Meteorology,2000,11(3):322-330.(in Chinese) [22]吴文玉,孔芹芹,王晓东,等.安徽省近40年参考作物蒸散量的敏感性分析[J].生态环境学报,2013,22(7):1160-1166. Wu W Y,Kong Q Q,Wang X D,et al.Sensitivity analysis of reference crop evapotranspiration in Anhui Province in the recent 40 years[J].Ecology and Environmental Sciences, 2013,22(7):1160-1166.(in Chinese) [23]姬兴杰,朱亚玉,顾万龙.河南省参考作物蒸散量的变化特征及其气候影响分析[J].中国农业气象,2013,34(1):14-22. Ji X J,Zhu Y Y,Gu W L.Analysis on trends in annual reference crop evapotranspiration and its impact climatic factors in Henan province during 1971 to 2010[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2013,34(1):14-22.(in Chinese) [24]王琼,张明军,潘淑坤,等.长江流域潜在蒸散量时空变化特征[J].生态学杂志,2013,32(5):1292-1302. Wang Q,Zhang M J,Pan S K,et al.Spatiotemporal variation patterns of potential evapotranspiration in the Yangtze River Basin of China[J].Chinese Journal Ecology,2013,32(5): 1292-1302.(in Chinese) [25]王明田,蔡元刚,张玉芳,等.基于相对湿润度指数的四川省季节性干旱时空分布特征[J].西南农业学报,2014, 27(4):1715-1722. Wang M T,Cai Y G,Zhang Y F,et al.Spatial and temporal distribution of seasonal drought in Sichuan based on relative moisture index[J].Southwest China Journal of Agricultural Science,2014,27(4):1715-1722.(in Chinese)