关键词: 吉林省, 春旱, 风险评估, 区划

Abstract: Based on the meteorological data of all stations in Jilin Province during the period of 1951-2005,the risk of the spring drought in Jilin Province were discussed and evaluated by using the variation coefficient,risk probability of normal distribution and risk index.The results showed that the risk of the spring drought was higher in the most parts of the middle and western Jilin Province,where the probability of drought was with over 60% and the probability of serious drought 20~60%.The results of the comprehensive risk division showed that Baicheng City in the western Jilin Province was the area with the high spring drought risk,while Songyuan City and the most parts of the middle Jilin Province were the areas with relative high spring drought risk.The risk of the spring drought should be fully considered in the agricultural production in the middle and western parts of Jilin Province,to reduce the yield losses.

Key words: Jilin Province, Jilin Province, Spring drought, Risk Evaluation, Division