鲁西南地区土壤墒情变化规律分析

中国农业气象

鲁西南地区土壤墒情变化规律分析

孔凡忠;刘继敏;张翠英;王玮;吴雷柱;

山东菏泽市气象局,山东菏泽市气象局,山东菏泽市气象局,山东菏泽市气象局,山东菏泽市气象局菏泽274000,山东省气象科学研究所,菏泽274000,菏泽274000,菏泽274000,菏泽274000

出版日期:2008-04-10 发布日期:2008-04-10
基金资助:
北京区域气象中心气象技术开发研究课题“鲁西南干旱指标及长期预报方法研究”(2001-16)

Analysis of Soil Moisture Changes in Southwestern Shandong Province

KONG Fan-zhong1,2,LIU Ji-min1,ZHANG Cui-ying1,WANG Wei1,WU Lei-zhu1(1.Meteorological Bureau of Heze City,Heze 274000,China;2.Institute of Meteorological Science of Shandong Province)

Online:2008-04-10 Published:2008-04-10

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 从土壤墒情角度探讨鲁西南土壤干旱发生演变规律,应用枚举法和Markov模型对1961-2003年滤除了人为干扰因素后的准自然条件下土壤墒情序列进行计算,得到鲁西南地区春、夏、秋、冬各季干旱持续时间的概率密度以及各季连年发生季节性干旱和不干旱的概率密度;统计得出各旬土壤在未来一旬无有效降水条件下不同土壤墒情的失墒速度,从而展示墒情变化与季节的关系,并对逐旬墒情变化与前期气象要素进行相关分析,得出一批影响旬墒情变化的气象因子;利用近几年的定点实测资料统计得到不同降水使土壤干旱状态改善效应。研究结果对利用土壤墒情研究干旱规律、区域性旱情客观评估和预测具有较好的实用和参考价值。

关键词: 鲁西南, 土壤墒情, 干旱历时

Abstract: Drought occurrences in the Southwestern Shandong Province from the perspectives of the soil moisture were analyzed.By using the enumeration method and Markov model designed by Gabriel and Neumann,the soil moisture sequences were calculated under quasi-natural condition eliminating by jamming from year 1960 to year 2003.The probability densities of the drought duration and the successive quarter drought occurrences in the Southwestern Shandong Province were gained.The losing velocity of the soil moisture at the different soil moisture levels for each ten days without effective precipitation in future ten days were statistically calculated to reveal the relationship between soil moisture changes and seasons,and to determine the meteorological factors which affected the soil moisture.The effects of the precipitation at the different levels in improving the status of the soil drought were analyzed.

Key words: Southwestern Shandong Province, Southwestern Shandong Province, Soil moisture, Drought duration

孔凡忠;刘继敏;张翠英;王玮;吴雷柱;. 鲁西南地区土壤墒情变化规律分析[J]. 中国农业气象.

KONG Fan-zhong1,2,LIU Ji-min1,ZHANG Cui-ying1,WANG Wei1,WU Lei-zhu1(1.Meteorological Bureau of Heze City,Heze 274000,China;2.Institute of Meteorological Science of Shandong Province). Analysis of Soil Moisture Changes in Southwestern Shandong Province[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology.

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