关键词: 气候变化, CERES模型, 小麦, 适应

Abstract: The wheat production during 2071-2100(2080s) was simulated in Linyi of Shandong Province under A2 and B2 emission scenarios based on the CERES-Wheat crop model associated with the climate change scenario produced by the UK Hadley Centre regional climate model-PRECIS(Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies).The results showed that keeping wheat variety and field managements unchanged,under A2 and B2 emission scenarios,by 2080s the growing season would shorten,and the wheat yield would decrease.If the fertilization effect of CO2 was considered,it would compensate for the negative impact of temperature increases.If the sowing date was delayed and other measures didn't be changed,the wheat yield would increase and growing season would prolong.Breeding the wheat cultivar with more grain number per ear or introducing into the winter wheat by spring character,the wheat yield would increase.The delayed sowing date,breeding the wheat cultivar with more grain number per ear or introducing into the winter wheat by spring character would reduce the adverse impacts of climate change on wheat production in Linyi.

Key words: Climate change, Climate change, CERES model, Wheat, Adaptation