关键词: 贵州, 农业气象灾害, 风险评价

Abstract: Based on the theory of the information diffusion principle,the uncertainty theory and the matrix method of risk,the eight kinds of the agricultural meteorological disaster risks at the county level in Guizhou Province were synthetically estimated.The Guizhou Province could be divided into five zones for the agro-meteorological disaster risk on the basis of the cluster analysis,namely the spring drought and the autumn continuous rain zone,the frost,the late spring coldness and the clod dew zone,the winter low temperature and the summer drought zone,the autumn continuous rain and the summer drought zone,and the summer drought and the heavy rain and floods zone.The integrated model for the agro-meteorological disaster risk estimate was built on the basis of the grey relational analysis.The regional division of the agro-meteorological disaster risk was set up by the spatial analysis of the GIS.The result showed that the high risk areas of the agro-meteorological disaster were the west and the middle parts of the Guizhou Province,while the low risk areas were the south and east parts of the province.

Key words: Guizhou, Guizhou, Agro-meteorological disaster, Risk assessment