中国农业气象

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东北玉米生长模型中土壤水分参数的敏感性分析

王冬妮;马玉平;王石立;郭春明;   

  1. 吉林省气象科学研究所;中国气象科学研究院;
  • 出版日期:2010-04-10 发布日期:2010-04-10
  • 基金资助:
    国家科技支撑计划项目“农业重大气象灾害监测预警与调控技术研究”之“北方农业干旱监测预警技术研究”课题(2006BAD04B01);; 吉林省科技厅项目“基于3S技术的吉林省气象灾害监测预警系统研究”课题(20080427)

Sensitivity Analysis on the Soil Water Parameters in Maize Growth Model in Northeast China

WANG Dong-ni1,MA Yu-ping2,WANG Shi-li2,GUO Chun-ming1(1.Jilin Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Changchun 130062,China;2.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081)   

  • Online:2010-04-10 Published:2010-04-10

摘要: 为进一步改进和提高东北玉米生长模型评估干旱的能力,并使之更好的在区域尺度上应用,以吉林省为例,对该模型的土壤水分参数进行敏感度分析。通过对榆树(半湿润)和白城(半干旱)两个站点典型干旱年份(2000、2001年)和雨水较丰年份及平年(1998、2002年)的分析,得到以下初步结论:土壤含水量对凋萎湿度、田间持水量、作物系数最敏感,整个根区初始土壤有效含水量等次之;凋萎湿度、田间持水量、整个根区初始土壤有效含水量对土壤水分影响为正效应;上述结果在不同气候区、不同降水年份相对稳定,具有一定的普适性。作物生长模型在区域尺度应用时,上述敏感参数的不当估算所产生的误差将导致土壤水分模拟失真,并进一步影响整个作物生长过程的模拟和模型的区域应用;根据敏感性分析结果,有针对性地改进敏感参数,有望进一步提高土壤水分乃至作物生长的模拟精度。

关键词: 玉米, 作物生长模型, 土壤水分参数, 敏感度

Abstract: In order to improve and optimize the drought evaluation ability of the maize growth simulation model in Northeast China,and to scale up its use on larger region,the sensitivity analysis of parameters in soil water sub-module was carried out.Based on the case study in Yushu (subhumid) and Baicheng (semiarid) weather stations of Jilin province in typical dry years ( 2000,2001) and years with enough or normal precipitation (1998,2002),it showed that:soil moisture was the most sensitive to wilting point,field capacity and crop coefficient and available soil moisture in root zone came second to that.The effects of wilting point,field capacity and initial amount of available soil moisture in root zone on soil moisture were positive.In addition,the results were consistent with different climatic regions and precipitation year patterns. It was difficult to apply the crop growth simulation model on regional scale due to limited measured values of soil and crop parameters mentioned above. And inaccurate estimation of parameters in soil water sub-module could lead to error in soil water content,and further to crop simulation.Simulation precision should be further improved by optimizing parameters according to the results of sensitivity analysis.

Key words: Maize, Maize, Crop growth simulation model, Soil water parameters, Sensitivity analysis