关键词: 鄱阳湖周边地区, 气温, 变化趋势, Mann-Kendall统计检验, Pettitt-Mann-Whitney突变点检验法

Abstract: Based on observed data of the daily average,maximum and minimum temperature from 10 meteorological stations around Poyang lake from 1961 to 2007,the trends and the change-points of temperature were detected by using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall test and Pettitt-Mann-Whitney change-point statistics.The major results could be summarized as follows: ①the annual mean of daily average,maximum and minimum temperature around Poyang lake displayed increasing trend,but the warming rate and significant level were different.The warming rate of the minimum temperature was about 0.247℃/10y and most significant,but the average and maximum temperature were not significant.②Except the winter mean of the daily maximum temperature,the other winter mean temperature increased significantly,followed by spring and autumn in sequence,but the change in summer was not significant.③Comparative analysis for the same period(1971-2004) showed that the warming trend around Poyang lake was according to that of China and global,but the warming rate(0.33℃/10y)was higher than that of China(0.21℃/10y)and global(0.15℃/10y).

Key words: Poyang lake region, Poyang lake region, Temperature, Change trend, Nonparametric Mann-Kendall test, Pettitt-Mann-Whitney change-point statistics