莎车日平均气温≥5℃初日的变化特征以及对杏树开花期的影响

中国农业气象 ›› 2011, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (增刊): 104-107.

莎车日平均气温≥5℃初日的变化特征以及对杏树开花期的影响

傅玮东，杨秋莲，李兰

新疆气候中心，乌鲁木齐830002；江西省高安市气象局，高安330800

出版日期:2011-10-31 发布日期:2011-11-24
基金资助:
中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用项目（CMAGJ2011M58）；中国气象局气候变化专项（201122）；新疆气象局项目（201105）

Change of the First Day on Daily Average Temperature ≥5℃ in Shache and Its Impact on the Blossom of Apricot

FU Weidong,YANG Qiulian, LI Lan

Xinjiang Climatic Center, Urumqi830002，China; Meteorological Bureau of Gaoan City,Jiangxi Province,Gaoan330800

Online:2011-10-31 Published:2011-11-24

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用新疆喀什地区莎车县1961-2010年日平均气温和1983-2010年杏树物候期观测资料，通过相关分析和回归分析，研究气温稳定通过5℃初日的变化特征及其对杏树开花期的影响。结果表明，1961-2010年，莎车县5℃初日呈现较为显著的提早趋势，且各年代际间5℃初日呈波动变化趋势，其中20世纪70、80年代出现最晚，2001-2010年出现最早。杏树开花盛期也呈较显著提早的趋势，其中2001年以来比20世纪90年代提早了4d，比1983-1990年提早了5d。杏树的开花盛期与5℃初日日期呈显著的正相关，利用回归模型开展的杏树开花盛期预报结果显示，其相对误差在±2%。研究结果可为当地杏树开花物候期的预测以及春季果树生产管理提供科学依据。

关键词: 莎车, 气温稳定通过5℃初日, 杏树开花期

Abstract: By using daily average temperature data from 1961 to 2010 and phenological data of Apricot from 1983 to 2010 in Shache county of Kashi region of Xinjiang,the change of the first day on daily average temperature which steadily passed 5℃ and its impact on the blossom of apricot were studied by correlation and regression analysis. The results showed that the first day on 5℃ critical temperature had a significantly early trend from 1961 to 2010,and it had a fluctuating trend in the inter decadal. The latest day of the first day on 5℃ critical temperature appeared in 1970s and in 1980s,the earliest day appeared in 2001-2010 .The day of peak blossom of apricot also had a significantly early trend from 1983 to 2010,and an earlier trend in decadal was showed. It was 4 days earlier since 2001 than in 1990s and it was 5 days earlier since 2001 than from 1983 to 1990. The peak blossom of apricot and the first day on 5℃ critical temperature has significant positive correlation. Using the regression model,the peak blossom of apricot were forecasted from 2008 to 2010 and the 〖JP2〗relative errors of the above forecasted value were between -2% and +2%. 〖JP〗These results could provide a scientific basis for the local apricot blossom forecasts and the production and management of apricot in spring.

Key words: Shache, Steadily pass of 5℃ on the first day on daily average temperature, The blossom of apricot

傅玮东，杨秋莲，李兰. 莎车日平均气温≥5℃初日的变化特征以及对杏树开花期的影响[J]. 中国农业气象, 2011, 32(增刊): 104-107.

FU Weidong,YANG Qiulian, LI Lan. Change of the First Day on Daily Average Temperature ≥5℃ in Shache and Its Impact on the Blossom of Apricot[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2011, 32(增刊): 104-107.