关键词: 信息扩散理论, 福建省, 风雹灾害, 风险评估

Abstract: Combined with area information of disasteraffected crops in Fujian province for nearly 31 years from 1978 to 2008, and in order to conduct an objective analysis of the risk of disaster losses caused by wind and hailstorms to crops in Fujian, the normal information diffusion method of calculation was applied to this research. The results showed that affected area and disaster area caused by wind and hailstorms in Fujian are relatively small, and the overall hazard index showed a downward trend. Years of affected index ≥3% and disaster index ≥1% were all before 1990. The risk probability of the affected and disaster decreases with the level of disaster risk increased. The risk of affected is greater than the risk of disaster. When averaging the risk of affected and disaster, i.e. when crop area of affected and disaster caused by wind and hailstorms occupies 1.77% and 0.65% respectively of the total crop area, the risk of affected and disaster is once in 1.8 years and once in 1.7 years respectively. Compared with actual state of the affected and disaster over the years, risk assessment results are more consistent with the actual situation.

Key words: Information diffusion theory, Fujian province, Wind and hailstorms disaster, Risk assessment