中国农业气象 ›› 2012, Vol. 33 ›› Issue (04): 615-622.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2012.04.021

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

江西省水稻高温热害发生规律研究

杨炳玉,申双和,陶苏林,李倩,邹学智   

  1. 南京信息工程大学江苏省农业气象重点实验室/南京信息工程大学应用气象学院,南京210044
  • 收稿日期:2012-03-15 出版日期:2012-11-20 发布日期:2013-02-26
  • 作者简介:杨炳玉(1987-),女,云南大理人,硕士生,主要从事农业气象研究。Email:happy_yby@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    “农业应对气候变化”项目(1411145000994);江苏高校优势学科建设工程(PAPD)项目

Spatial and Temporal Pattern of Rice Heat Injury in Jiangxi

YANG Bing yu,SHEN Shuang he,TAO Su lin,LI Qian,ZOU Xue zhi   

  1. Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology,Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology/College of Applied Meteorology,Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology,Nanjing210044,China
  • Received:2012-03-15 Online:2012-11-20 Published:2013-02-26

摘要: 利用江西省74个台站1961-2010年6-8月日平均气温、日最高气温和日平均相对湿度资料,采用线性回归法、多项式回归法、Morlet小波分析和数字高程模型(DEM),以探究该区水稻高温热害发生时段分布、年际变化、发生频次的时频特征和空间分布等规律。结果表明,(1)江西省水稻高温热害集中于7月中、下旬和8月上旬,其中7月13-24日为高温热害发生概率最大的时段;(2)1961-1982年高温热害总发生次数呈下降趋势,1983-2010年则呈极显著上升趋势(P<0.01),不同等级高温热害发生次数的年际变化特点与总发生次数变化相一致;(3)各等级高温热害次数呈现不同时间尺度的周期震荡,轻高温热害表现为准2a、4a、8a左右、15a、25a周期变化,中高温热害以准2a、4a、10a左右、23a的周期震荡表现显著,重高温热害则表现出准2a、6a、准13a、25a的周期震荡;(4)高温热害发生频次的高值区分布于江西东北部、赣州北部、吉泰盆地和赣抚平原,并向周边山区递减。

关键词: 水稻, 高温热害, 时空分布, Morlet小波分析, 数字高程模型

Abstract: Based on daily average temperature,maximum temperature and mean relative humidity of 74 meteorological stations in Jiangxi province during June to August from 1961 to 2010,the authors investigated the occurrence period,inter annual variation,time-frequency variation characteristics as well as temporal spatial patterns of rice heat injury in Jiangxi province using linear and polynomial regression method,Morlet wavelet analysis and the Digital Elevation Model (DEM).The results showed that (1) the rice heat injury mostly occurred in mid July to early August with the most probability from July 13th to July 24th(2)The annual occurrence times of rice heat injury decreased from 1961 to 1982,while increased significantly from 1983 to 2010(P<0.01),their temporal tendencies for different grades were consistent with in the total times(3)The annual occurrence times for three grades of rice heat injury fluctuated in a remarkable cyclical manner,ie,slight grade fluctuated in the time scale of quasi 2 years,4 years,about 8,15and 25 years,moderate grade fluctuated significantly in quasi 2 years,4 years,about 10 and 23 years periods and severe grade fluctuated in quasi 2 years,6 years,quasi 13 years and 25 years periods(4)The high value of annual occurrence times of rice heat injury on the spatial distribution pattern was located in the northeast of Jiangxi,northern of Ganzhou,Jitai basin and Ganfu plain,and decreased to the surrounding mountains.

Key words: Rice, Heat injury, Temporal and spatial pattern, Morlet wavelet analysis, Digital Elevation Model

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