关键词: 赤松毛虫, 越冬死亡率, 影响因素, 气象条件, 预报模型

Abstract: Based on overwintering mortality data of the Dendrolimus spectabilis Butler and its relationship with the synchronous temperature,precipitation,wind speed,relative humidity,and sunshine hours in Fuxin county,Liaoning province from 1976 to 2012,the main meteorological factors influenced the overwintering mortality of the Dendrolimus spectabilis Butler were determined,and the prediction model of the overwintering mortality of Dendrolimus spectabilis Butler was established,which had passed significance and verification test,by using correlation analysis,stepwise regression analysis,the combination of principal component analysis and stepwise regression. The results showed that temperature was the primary factor for overwintering mortality of Dendrolimus spectabilis Butler,followed by sunshine hours and combined effect of temperature and humidity. The correlation coefficient of stepwise regression method(methodⅠ)was 0.75 between fitted values and observed data,and average D2(square of relative difference between overwintering mortality simulation value and actual data)was 0.58. The correlation coefficient was 0.76 and the average D2 was 0.62 of combination of principal component analysis and stepwise regression(methodⅡ). Compared the simulation data of these two methods from 2009 to 2012,the accuracy of methodⅠwas above 70% and method Ⅱ was above 80% in 2009,2010,and 2012. The results indicated that the forecast accuracy of methodⅡwas higher than that of methodⅠ,but they could be used in different conditions. If it was easy to get the data of meteorological factors,methodⅡwas the better choice,otherwise methodⅠwas the alternative.

Key words: Dendrolimus spectabilis Butler, Overwintering mortality, Influence factors, Meteorology condition, Forecast model