关键词: 小麦白粉病, 气象因子, 影响事实检测, 性预报, 定量预报

Abstract: The impact of meteorological factors to wheat powdery mildew was analyzed based on the previous researches,by using of the method of detecting facts. Application of meteorological factors to wheat powdery mildew forecast was summarized, and problems in current research were pointed out and future research trend was suggested. Previous researches showed that low summer temperature was conducive to powdery mildew survival. Higher temperature and more precipitation in autumn, winter and early spring were conducive to the occurrence and development of powdery mildew. But overmuch rainfall was not conducive to the development of powdery mildew. High temperature over 25℃ and drought could inhibit disease development. Low sunshine was conducive to the development of powdery mildew too. Gone with atmospheric circulation, powdery mildew achieves remote propagation. Most above researches were based on field observation, and compared with meteorological data. There were few researches about quantitative relationship between wheat powdery mildew occurrence and development and meteorological factor and factor combination. The meteorological forecast of wheat powdery mildew could be classified qualitative forecast and quantitative forecast. Qualitative forecast generally used the index forecasting method. Quantitative prediction mostly used mathematical statistics method. Artificial neural network, fuzzy mathematics method and the grey system theory were used in some researches too. The limitation of data, improper selection of index, simulation methods limited to black and grey box model, results of regional and poor practicability were the main problems in wheat powdery mildew forecast. Mechanism model was almost blank but needed in the future.

Key words: Wheat powdery mildew, Meteorological factors, Detecting of influence facts, Qualitative forecast, Quantitative forecast