中国农业气象 ›› 2015, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (02): 220-226.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.02.013

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

安徽省水稻高温热害保险天气指数模型设计

杨太明,孙喜波,刘布春,荀尚培   

  1. 1安徽省农业气象中心,合肥230031;2国元农业保险公司,合肥230031;3中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所,北京100081;4农业气象灾害评估及风险转移实验室,合肥230031
  • 收稿日期:2014-08-03 出版日期:2015-04-20 发布日期:2015-06-25
  • 作者简介:杨太明(1966-),安徽芜湖人,硕士,高级工程师,主要从事农业气象灾害研究。Email:ytm0305@126.com
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然基金面上项目(41171410);国家科技支撑计划课题(2012BAD04B09)

Design on Weather Indices Model for Insurance of Rice Heat Damage in Anhui Province

YANG Taiming,SUN Xibo,LIU Buchun,XUN Shangpei   

  1. 1Anhui Agrometeorological Center,Hefei230031,China; 2Guoyuan Agricultural Insurance Company,Hefei230031; 3Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture,CAAS,Beijing100081; 4Laboratory for Agrimeteorological Disaster Assessment & Risk Change of Anhui Province,Hefei230031
  • Received:2014-08-03 Online:2015-04-20 Published:2015-06-25

摘要: 利用安徽省南陵县1991-2011年逐日气象数据,通过调查区域水稻生长期的主要农业气象灾害类型,选择易对授粉产生影响并导致减产的中稻孕穗-灌浆期高温热害作为保险设计的气象灾害类型;定义7月21日-8月15日连续3d日最高气温在35℃(含35℃)以上为一个高温过程,计算日有效高温差累计值,作为水稻高温热害保险天气指数(ST);以10℃作为赔付触发值,并按照灾害程度越大赔付标准越高的思路确定不同灾害程度下的具体赔付标准(即启动赔付系数);通过对南陵县1991-2011年水稻产量的分离和去趋势化处理,计算历年由于气象条件变化造成的产量和货币损失,对比历史天气指数发生概率与历史产量损失率,确定指数保险赔付的触发值及赔付标准,建立高温热害天气指数模型;与实际灾害情况相结合,通过设定参数值详细给出了模型在安徽省南陵县应用的计算过程。该天气指数保险产品操作性强,可为同类地区高温热害保险提供参考,以便在灾害发生后客观、快捷地为保户提供经济补偿。

关键词: 水稻, 高温热害, 天气指数, 农业保险

Abstract: ased on daily meteorological data in Nanling County,Anhui Province from 1991 to 2001 and investigated main agrometeorological disaster type of regional rice during growing season,heat damage at booting filling stage was selected to design the model,due to the fact that heat damage has a serious effect on pollination and even reduced the yield. The daily maximum temperature more than 35℃(include 35℃)in 3 days continuously from July 21 to August 15 was defined as a high temperature process and taking accumulative value of daily effective high temperature difference as the heat damage weather index of rice insurance(ST). 10℃ was considered as payment trigger value and in accordance with the extent of the disaster,the higher the extend the larger the payment standard. Through separation and detrended treatment of rice yield from 1991 to 2011 in Nanling County,yields and currency losses each year which caused by changes of weather conditions,was calculated. Comparing to the probability of occurrence of weather index and historical yield loss,the trigger value and the payment standard of index insurance payments was determined,and heat damage weather index model was established. Combining with the actual disaster situations,the calculation process of model was applied in Nanling County through setting the parameter values. The weather index insurance product had strong operational,which could provide a reference for similar areas of heat damage weather index insurance.

Key words: Rice, Heat damage, Weather index, Agricultural insurance