陕西苹果主产县花期冻害风险评估

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2020.06.005

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 为评估陕西礼泉和旬邑两个苹果主产县富士苹果的花期冻害风险，通过热时模型利用日平均气温重构礼泉和旬邑两地1967-2018年苹果始花期，并利用日最低气温根据苹果花期冻害指标阈值提取两地同时期内重度、中度和轻度不同等级冻害终日，采用线性倾向法和风险指数法分析两地苹果花期冻害风险情况。结果表明：1967-2018年礼泉和旬邑的重构苹果始花期呈显著提前趋势，提前速率分别为2.8d·10a-1（P<0.01）和0.8d·10a-1（P<0.05）；礼泉地区重度冻害终日呈显著提前趋势，提前速率为3.3d·10a-1（P<0.01），中度、轻度冻害终日无显著变化，旬邑地区三个等级冻害终日均无显著变化；礼泉地区苹果平均始花期日序为DOY100，晚于平均轻度冻害终日日序DOY95，冻害风险较小，旬邑地区苹果平均始花期日序为DOY107，晚于平均重度冻害终日日序DOY93，但早于平均轻度冻害终日日序DOY118，冻害风险较高；礼泉和旬邑两地苹果花期冻害风险指数无显著变化，但是两地冻害风险指数≥0的频次增加，说明苹果花期冻害风险有上升趋势。

关键词: 农业保险, 苹果, 始花期, 热时模型, 冻害终日, 冻害风险指数

Abstract: Shaanxi province is an advantageous ecological area for apple cultivation and a high-risk area of freezing injury during flowering. Freezing injury during flowering has become one of the most serious natural disasters affecting the yield and quality of apples in Shaanxi. To assess the risk of flowering freezing injury of Fuji apples in two main apple-producing counties of Liquan and Xunyi, Shaanxi province, the daily average temperature was used to reconstruct the apple first flowering dates during 1967-2018 in Liquan and Xunyi, using the thermal time model. The daily minimum temperatures in the two sites during the same period were used to extract the last date of three freezing injury grades, in which the upper critical thresholds were-2, 0, and 2℃, respectively. The differences between the last date of three freezing injury grades and the first flowering date were defined as freezing injury risk indices. The linear tendency method was used to analyze variation trends in the first flowering date, last date of three freezing injury grades, and freezing injury risk indices. The results showed that the thermal time model could be used to reconstruct the first apple flowering dates in Liquan and Xunyi. The first apple flowering dates in Liquan and Xunyi advanced significantly from 1967 to 2018, with advance rates of 2.8d·10y-1 (P<0.01) in Liquan and 0.8d·10y-1 (P<0.05) in Xunyi, respectively. The last date of severe freezing injury in Liquan showed a significant advance trend with an advance rate of 3.3d·10y-1 (P<0.01), and the last dates of moderate and light freezing injury in Liquan showed no significant variation trends. There were no significant variation trends in the last dates of different freezing injury grades in Xunyi. The average first flowering date of apple in Liquan was on April 10(DOY 100), which was later than the average last date of light freezing injury on April 5(DOY 95), hence the risk of freezing injury in Liquan was low. The average first flowering date of apple in Xunyi was on April 17(DOY 107), which was later than average last date of severe freezing injury on April 3(DOY 93), but earlier than average last date of light freezing injury on April 28(DOY 118), hence the risk of freezing injury in Xunyi was higher than Liquan. There were no significant variations of freezing injury risk indices in Liquan and Xunyi, but the frequency of freezing injury risk index that higher than zero in Liquan and Xunyi increased, indicating that the freezing injury risk during apple blossoms was increasing.

Key words: Agricultural insurance, Apple, First flowering date, Thermal time phenology model, Last day of freezing injury, Freezing injury risk index

中图分类号:

王明昌，刘布春，刘园，杨晓娟，韩帅，邱美娟，李琼. 陕西苹果主产县花期冻害风险评估[J]. 中国农业气象, 2020, 41(06): 381-392.

WANG Ming-chang, LIU Bu-chun, LIU Yuan, YANG Xiao-juan, HAN Shuai, QIU Mei-juan, LI qiong. Assessment on the Freezing Injury Risk during Apple Flowering in Liquan and Xunyi[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2020, 41(06): 381-392.

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