关键词: 深度学习, 冬小麦, 春季冻害, 年代际变化

Abstract:

 Freezing damage in spring is one of the serious agricultural meteorological disasters for winter wheat production in the Huang-Huai-Hai plain. In order to effectively identify freezing damages of winter wheat in spring, this paper used a deep learning long short-term memory model LSTM to identify the occurrences of freezing damages of winter wheat in spring in Henan province, which was an important winter wheat planting area in China. The spatiotemporal distributions and decadal changes of freezing damages of winter wheat in spring based on the multi-source meteorological, crop, and disaster data from 99 meteorological stations from 1981 to 2020 were explored. The results indicated that: (1) the optimized LSTM model effectively identified freezing damages of winter wheat in spring. The daily minimum temperature simulated by LSTM model from 2017 to 2020 showed an average absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 8.73% and a goodness of fit (R²) with 0.90 compared to the actual minimum temperature. Based on the disaster data and freezing damage index for winter wheat in spring, the actual disaster situations from 2017 to 2020 were found to be consistent with the simulated results by the optimized LSTM model. (2) From 1981 to 2020, the harm of mild freezing damage to winter wheat in spring in Henan province had gradually weakened, and the high frequency area of mild freezing damage moved from the Northeast to the East. The overall distribution of mild freezing damage of winter wheat in spring in Henan province between 1981 and 2020 was higher in the northeastern Henan, and lower in the southwestern and southeastern Henan, with an average frequency of 0−1.75 times·10y⁻¹ during the past 40 years. The frequency of mild freezing damage of winter wheat in spring decreased per decade, gradually decreasing from 0.843 times per decade to 0.157 times per decade. The high frequency area of mild freezing damage of winter wheat in spring moved from the Northeast to the East. (3) From 1981 to 2020, the frequency of severe freezing damage of winter wheat in spring in Henan province showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing. The high frequency area of severe freezing damage of winter wheat in spring moved from the Northeast to the East. The overall distribution of severe freezing damage during the 40a period was higher in the East than in the West, and higher in the North than in the South. The average frequency of severe freezing damage in the 40a period was 0−2.75times·10y⁻¹. The frequency of severe freezing damage of winter wheat in spring increased from 0.508 times per decade to 0.857 times per decade and then decreased to 0.289 times per decade. The high frequency area of severe freezing damage moved from the Northeast to the East. The overall trend of severe freezing damage of winter wheat in spring in Henan Province was decreasing, but the frequency of extreme weather events under climate warming was increasing. Strengthening the researches on the impacts of major agricultural meteorological disasters on agricultural production in various regions in China under climate change was still one of the future research focuses. Various accuracy evaluation indicators of the deep learning LSTM model for identifying freezing damage of winter wheat in spring proposed in this study were improved, and the simulation results of freezing damage by LSTM model were basically consistent with the actual occurrences. Our results can provide ideas and methods for large-scale freezing damage identification of winter wheat under global climate change, and also have certain reference values for other agricultural meteorological disaster identification.

Key words: Deep learning, Winter wheat, Freezing damage in spring, Interdecadal change