中国农业气象 ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (3): 281-289.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2025.03.001

• 农业气候资源与气候变化栏目 •    下一篇

1470−2012年南京地区旱涝演变特征

袁媛,施逸,张鹭,董金芳,鲁蓉,夏斌,林燕,蔡丹苹   

  1. 1.南京市气象局,南京 210019;2.陕西省农业遥感与经济作物气象服务中心,西安 710000;3.南京江宁区气象局,南京 211100
  • 收稿日期:2024-03-14 出版日期:2025-03-20 发布日期:2025-03-19
  • 作者简介:袁媛,E-mail:23841370@qq.com
  • 基金资助:
    江苏省气象科学研究所北极阁基金(BJG201905);南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室和气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心联合开放课题(KLME202410);江苏省气象局青年基金项目(KQ202407);江苏省应用数学(南京信息工程大学)中心开放课题(2281112400301)

Evolution Characteristics Analysis of Drought and Flood in Nanjing from 1470 to 2012

YUAN Yuan, SHI Yi, ZHANG Lu, DONG Jin-fang, LU Rong, XIA Bin, LIN Yan, CAI Dan-ping   

  1. 1.Nanjing Meteorological Bureau, Nanjing 210009, China; 2.Shaanxi Meteorological Service Center of Agricultural Remote Sensing and Economic Crops, Xi’an 710000; 3.Jiangning Meteorological Bureau, Nanjing 211100
  • Received:2024-03-14 Online:2025-03-20 Published:2025-03-19

摘要:

基于南京地区1470−1950历史旱涝等级资料和1951−2012年南京国家基本气象站逐降水量数据,依据《中国近五百年旱涝分布图集》中降水量评定旱涝等级的分级标准,重建南京1470−2012年干旱和洪涝发生等级采用Morlet小波分析、滑动平均t检验方法,对1470−2012年南京旱涝等级序列演变特征进行深入分析结果表明:1470−2012年南京发生旱灾年160a涝灾年167a正常年216a大涝、大旱等严重灾害多发且集中。南京地区旱涝具有明显阶段性,1470−1554年、1625−1652年、1912−2012年以偏旱为主,1554−1624年以偏涝为主,1653−1805年、1849−1912年以正常为主,1806−1848旱涝交替阶段性变化显著,近百年为多旱少涝阶段。南京地区旱涝等级存在多尺度周期振动,其中2~8a1020a时间尺度上周期振荡最显著,其次是64a32a及16a的长周期振荡目前南京地区进入2~8a周期振荡。不同时间序列中1554年1615年1914年附近发生显著旱涝突变,呈少雨期多雨期少雨期的演变特征。20纪以来,南京地区偏涝持续时间缩短,呈干旱化趋势。

关键词: 旱涝, 重建, 演变特征, 趋势

Abstract:

Re-establishing a current rule on the grading of drought and flood in Nanjing from 1470 to 2012, based on historical drought and flood grades data in Nanjing from 1470 to 1950, monthly precipitation data from Nanjing National Basic Meteorological Station from 1951 to 2012 and the drought and flood grades standards for precipitation classification in "Chinese Map Collection of Drought and Flood Distribution in the Past Five Hundred Years". Morlet wavelet analysis and moving mean t-test were used as the research methodology to analyze the evolution characteristics of the drought and flooding grade series in Nanjing from 1470 to 2012. The result showed that between 1470 and 2012, it experienced 160 years of drought, 167 years of flooding and 216 years of normal conditions in NanjingSevere floods, severe droughts occur frequently and intensivelyThe occurrence of droughts and floods in Nanjing showed distinct phases. Drought dominated from 1470 to 1554, 1625 to 1652, and 1912 to 2012. From 1653 to 1805 and from 1849 to 1912, the normal dominated. Between 1806 and 1848 there was a significant alternating pattern of droughts and floods, and the region had experienced more droughts than floods over the past century. The drought and flood levels in Nanjing also exhibit multi−scale periodic oscillations, with the most significant oscillations occurring on time scales of 2−8y and 10−20y. Following these, there were long-period oscillations on the scales 64y, 32y, and 16y. At the present, the Nanjing region had entered a period of oscillation within the 2−8y period. In different time series, significant drought−flood mutations occurred around the years in 1554, 1615 and 1914, characterizing the climatic evolution of dry periods-pluvial periods-dry periods. Since the 20th century, the duration of moderate flood in Nanjing had been shortened by a trend towards aridity. 

Key words: Drought and flooding, Reconstruction, Evolutionary characteristics, Trend