关键词: 气候变化, 农业影响, 模型模拟

Abstract: Simulation modeling is a particularly important tool for estimating the impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity,so as to attract much attentions and applications.The development process of modeling of climate change impacts on agricultural productivity was given,including the modeling of climate change impacts on agricultural productivity by changing climate parameters artificlally,linking to climate scenarios,and integrating with other models for compositive simulations.Basing on the analysis on the key issues of making choice between empirical and mechanistic models,field and region scale,determined and probabilistic climate scenarios,the indeterminacy and problems existed and prospects were given.

Key words: Climate change, Climate change, Agricultural impacts, Modeling