关键词: 鲁西北, 气温, 降水量, 变化趋势

Abstract: By using the methods of linear and R/S(Rescaled Range Analysis),the change and trends of annual precipitation and annual average temperature in Northwest of Shandong were analyzed.The results showed that the temperature increased in Northwest of Shandong in last 50 years with change rate 0.22℃/10a.Hurst index of temperature was 0.92,which indicated that temperature would increase in future.Annual precipitation decreased with change rate 28.8mm/10a.Hurst index of precipitation was 0.61,which indicated that the decreasing trend would continue.The abrupt of the annual average temperature occurred in 1997,while the abrupt of the annual precipitation occurred three times.The abrupt of the precipitation and temperature were not occurring simultaneously.

Key words: Northwest of Shandong, Temperature, Precipitation, Change trend