关键词: 边际土地, 能源作物, 菊芋, 适宜性分析, 气候变化

Abstract: As a critical non-grain energy crop material, Jerusalem artichoke holds potential to produce bio-liquid fuels as a novel energy source. To accurately identify potentially suitable areas for Jerusalem artichoke cultivation in Shaanxi, this study utilized data on the spatial distribution of 29 Jerusalem artichoke samples within the province, incorporating 26 environmental factors. In conjunction with the distribution of marginal land in Shaanxi, the study applied the MaxEnt model to simulate the potential habitat distribution under current and future climate scenarios, and the results were superimposed with the existing range of marginal land in Shaanxi for further analysis. The findings revealed that: (1) the MaxEnt model exhibited high precision (current AUC=0.914) in simulating the potential habitat of Jerusalem artichoke in Shaanxi. (2) The potential distribution of Jerusalem artichoke currently lies primarily in Dingbian, Zhidan, Xixiang Hanbin District in Ankang, Shangzhou District in Shangluo and Xixiang, with the total suitable area of marginal land approximating 75992km², accounting for 36.9% of the total area. The low, medium and high suitability areas amount to approximately 63169km², 11617km², and 1205km² respectively, with the primary marginal land use type being moderately coverage grassland. (3) The key environmental factors influencing Jerusalem artichoke growth are soil depth (142.4−155.4cm), the highest temperature in the warmest month (29.4−31.6℃), elevation (210−593m), aspect (70.7°−239.5°), and slope (0−10.5°). (4) Under four future climate scenarios, the overall area suitable for medium to high-intensity cultivation of Jerusalem artichoke in Shaanxi is expected to see a significant increase. Specifically, the area of medium to high suitability for the cultivation of Jerusalem artichoke is expected to increase by 14.39% to 46.46% and 46.90% to 95.39% from 2021 to 2040, and by 15.95% to 71.52% and 48.46% to 111.40% from 2041 to 2060. In conclusion, current and future climate changes are likely to expand the suitable cultivation area for Jerusalem artichoke in Shaanxi. In conclusion, comparing the historical climate data, the future climate change will help to expand the suitable Jerusalem artichoke growing area in Shaanxi. Experimental introductions in highly suitable areas, such as Dingbian and Shangzhou districts in Shangluo are recommended to verify the suitability of Jerusalem artichoke to the local environment and explore the feasibility of extended cultivation.

Key words: Marginal land, Energy plants, Jerusalem artichoke, MaxEnt, Suitability analysis, Climate change