中国农业气象 ›› 2025, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (8): 1165-1177.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2025.08.009

• 农业生物气象栏目 • 上一篇    下一篇

沂蒙山区金银花气候适宜度的变化特征及其与产量的关系

吕学梅，刘可欣，艾欣，张磊，吴东丽   

  1. 1.临沂市气象局，临沂 276004；2.山东省气象防灾减灾重点实验室，济南 250031；3.山东农业大学生命科学学院，泰安 271018；4.中国气象局气象探测中心，北京 100081
  • 收稿日期:2025-02-22 出版日期:2025-08-20 发布日期:2025-08-19
  • 作者简介:吕学梅，E-mail：lxm234@126.com
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划项目（2024YFD2301301）；山东省气象局气象榜单类专项项目（2023SDBD14）

Variation Characteristics of Climate Suitability for Honeysuckle and Its Relationship with Yield in the Yimeng Mountain Area

LV Xue-mei, LIU Ke-xin, AI Xin, ZHANG Lei, WU Dong-li   

  1. 1. Linyi Meteorological Bureau, Linyi 276004, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Shandong Province, Jinan 250031; 3. College of Life Sciences, Shandong Agricultural University, Tai’an 271018; 4. Meteorological Observation Center of China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081
  • Received:2025-02-22 Online:2025-08-20 Published:2025-08-19

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摘要：

金银花作为沂蒙山区的道地药材，具有较高的经济和生态价值，其品质与产量对气候条件的依赖性极强。本研究基于1991−2020年平邑国家基本气象站气象数据，构建金银花关键生育期（萌芽展叶期、抽梢期、孕蕾期和花蕾膨大期）的温度、水分、日照时数及综合气候适宜度模型，分析1991−2020年沂蒙山区气候适宜度变化特征及其与金银花产量的相关关系，以期揭示沂蒙山区金银花气候适应性的关键因子，为应对气候变化引发的道地性退化风险和金银花稳产提质提供参考。结果表明：（1）1991−2020年金银花全生育期温度适宜度呈显著上升趋势（0.016·10a−1，P<0.05），孕蕾期温度适宜度上升速率最快（0.032·10a−1，P<0.01），花蕾膨大期温度条件最优，温度适宜度平均值为0.953±0.045，萌芽展叶期需防控低温冻害。（2）沂蒙山区金银花全生育期水分适宜度波动较大，其变异系数（18.9%）显著高于温度适宜度（5.0%）和日照适宜度（9.5%）的变异率，个别年份因降水量分布不均易导致水分适宜度偏低，是制约金银花的关键因子，优化花蕾膨大期金银花水分管理是提升产量稳定性的关键。（3）沂蒙山区金银花全生育期日照适宜度呈显著下降趋势（−0.030·10a−1，P<0.05），萌芽展叶期下降速率最大（−0.077·10a−1，P<0.05），不利于金银花前期生长。花蕾膨大期日照适宜度最高，有利于金银花的光合作用和花蕾形成。（4）综合气候适宜度整体稳定，随发育进程递增，花蕾膨大期光温水条件协同最优，支撑金银花的产量形成。（5）金银花气象产量与综合气候适宜度呈极显著正相关（P<0.001），花蕾膨大期综合气候适宜度的相关关系最显著，其次为孕蕾期。综合来讲，金银花产量是光温水协同作用的结果，水分是影响沂蒙山区金银花产量的主要因素，花蕾膨大期水分适宜度为关键控制因子；其次光照对产量也有显著影响。优化花蕾膨大期的水分管理和提高综合气候适宜度是提升金银花产量稳定性的关键措施。

关键词: 沂蒙山区, 金银花, 气候适宜度, 产量

Abstract:

As a geo−authentic medicinal herb in the Yimeng mountain area, honeysuckle (Lonicera japonica Thunb.) exhibits significant economic and ecological value, with its quality and yield being highly sensitive to climatic conditions. Based on meteorological data (1991−2020) from the Pingyi national basic meteorological station, this study developed temperature, water, sunshine hours and comprehensive climate suitability models for the key growth periods of honeysuckle (including sprouting−leaf expansion period, shoot growth period, bud formation period and flower bud enlargement period). Temporal variation characteristics of climate suitability and their correlations with yield were systematically analyzed to identify key determinants governing climatic adaptability of honeysuckle. The findings provided scientific support for addressing geo−authenticity degradation risks under climate change and achieving yield stability and quality improvement. The results were as follows: (1) during 1991–2020, the temperature suitability of the whole growth period for honeysuckle exhibited a significant increasing trend (0.016·10y−1, P<0.05), with the most rapid rise observed during the bud formation period (0.032·10y−1, P<0.01). The flower bud enlargement period demonstrated optimal thermal conditions (0.953±0.045), while frost prevention remained critical during sprouting–leaf expansion period. (2) The water suitability for honeysuckle in the Yimeng mountain area exhibited substantial interannual variability of the whole growth period, with a coefficient of variation (18.9%) significantly higher than that of temperature suitability (5.0%) and sunshine suitability (9.5%). The uneven distribution of precipitation led to suboptimal water suitability in certain years, determining water conditions as the primary limiting factor for honeysuckle production. Crucially, optimized water management during the flower bud enlargement period had been identified as a key determinant for yield stabilization. (3) The sunshine suitability of the whole growth period for honeysuckle in the Yimeng mountain area showed a significant declining trend (−0.030·10y−1, P<0.05), with the most rapid decline occurring during the sprouting−leaf expansion period (−0.077·10y−1, P<0.05), which adversely affected early growth. The flower bud enlargement period exhibited the highest sunshine suitability, promoting photosynthesis and flower bud formation in honeysuckle. (4) The comprehensive climate suitability remained generally stable and exhibited a progressive increase throughout the developmental process. The light, temperature and water conditions during the flower bud enlargement period had been synergistically optimized to support the production of honeysuckle. (5) The meteorological yield of honeysuckle showed a highly significant positive correlation with the comprehensive climate suitability (P<0.001), with the strongest correlation observed during the flower bud enlargement period, followed by the bud formation period. In summary, honeysuckle yield results from the synergistic effects of light, temperature and water conditions. Of these, water availability emerges as the primary limiting factor for yield in Yimeng mountain area, with water suitability during flower bud enlargement period being the key determinant. Secondly, sunshine also has a significant effect on yield. Optimizing water management during the flower bud enlargement period and enhancing comprehensive climate suitability constitute critical measures for improving yield stability in honeysuckle production.

Key words: Yimeng mountain area, Honeysuckle (Lonicera japonica Thunb.), Climate suitability, Yield

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