关键词: 粮食安全, 气候变化, 农业保险, 异质性

Abstract:

Based on agricultural statistics data and meteorological data from 31 provinces in 2001−2021, a food security indicator system was constructed from four dimensions: food supply capacity, availability, stability and sustainability. Climate change was characterized by the fluctuation of monthly average temperature and precipitation. The impact mechanism of climate change on food security and the moderating effects of agricultural insurance were analyzed by using fixed−effects bidirectional model and moderation effect model, aiming to provide references for exploring the relationship of agricultural insurance, climate change and food security, optimizing climate-adaptive agricultural insurance policies, and formulating regionally differentiated food security strategies. The results indicated that: (1) the fluctuation of temperature and precipitation from 2001 to 2021 had a significant impact on China's food security. Specifically, temperature fluctuation had a negative effect on food security, while precipitation fluctuation had a highly significant positive impact on food security (P<0.01). (2) The moderating effect of agricultural insurance was reflected in significantly weakening the negative impact of temperature volatility on food security (P<0.01) and significantly enhancing the positive impact of precipitation volatility on food security (P<0.01). (3) There were regional differences in the impact of climate change on food security and the role of agricultural insurance. The fluctuation of temperature had a negative impact on food security in the south, while the fluctuation of precipitation had a significant promoting effect on food security in the north (P<0.05). The moderating effect of agricultural insurance could significantly weaken the negative impact of temperature fluctuations on food security (P<0.01). From the perspective of grain functional areas, the regression coefficients of the impact of temperature volatility on food security in main grain production areas, main sales areas and production sales balance areas were −0.0085, −0.0012 and −0.0421, respectively. The negative impact on the grain production sales balance area was the greatest (P<0.05). Agricultural insurance had the strongest moderating effect in main grain producing areas, which could simultaneously weaken the adverse effects of temperature (P<0.01) and precipitation volatility (P<0.05) on food security.

Key words: Food security, Climate change, Agricultural insurance, Heterogeneity