关键词: 烤烟, 气候变化, 最大熵模型, 潜在分布

Abstract: Using the Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt), 80 flue−cured tobacco planting sites in Hubei province and 11 environmental variables from 1970 to 2000 were selected. Based on the future climate scenario data of CMIP6, the potential suitable area for flue−cured tobacco in the 2030s (2021−2040), 2050s (2041−2060), 2070s (2061−2080) and 2090s (2081−2100) was predicted to provide a scientific reference for the planning and layout of flue−cured tobacco planting in Hubei province. The results showed that the dominant environmental variables affecting flue−cured tobacco were elevation, precipitation of wettest month, slope and temperature seasonality, with a cumulative contribution rate of 86.8%. Under the current climate from 1970 to 2000, the total area of the potential suitable area for flue−cured tobacco was 4.52×104km2, mainly distributed in Enshi, the western and northern parts of Yichang, the southwestern part of Xiangyang and the central and southern parts of Shiyan. The area of high, moderate and low suitable area was 1.02×104km2, 1.45×104km2 and 2.05×104km2 respectively. Under the SSP1−2.6 and SSP2−4.5 climate scenarios, the potential suitable area for flue−cured tobacco in Hubei was projected to decrease in the 2030s, 2050s 2070s and 2090s and compare to the current climate, indicating a decline in overall suitability. Conversely, under the SSP3−7.0 and SSP5−8.5 climate scenarios, the potential suitable area was projected to increase in the 2030s, 2050s and 2090s, but decreased in the 2070s, relative to the current climate. The centroid of the potential suitable area for flue−cured tobacco in Hubei generally exhibited a westward shift from 2030s to 2090s under future climate change scenarios. To adapt to future climate change, it is recommended to promote the cultivation of flue-cured tobacco in Enshi, where the potential suitable area remains relatively stable and experiences some expansion, thereby capitalizing on the region's existing and emerging planting potential.

Key words: Flue-cured tobacco, Climate change, Maximum entropy model, Potential distribution