关键词: CMIP6, 贵州省, 气候变化预估, 风资源, 光资源, 水资源

Abstract:

Based on the monthly near−surface wind speed (sfcWind), surface downwelling short wave radiation (rsds) and precipitation (pr) from the 5 global climate models that participated in the phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), the ERA−5 reanalysis data and the 83 observational stations over Guizhou, the characteristics of wind/solar/precipitation resources in Guizhou under three scenarios (SSP1−2.6, SSP2−4.5 and SSP5−8.5) were evaluated, using Quantile-Mapping to improve the simulation capabilities. The results showed that compared to the reference period (1995−2014), although there was little change in the relative anomalies of sfcWind under SSP2−4.5 and SSP5−8.5, the relative anomalies of sfcWind under SSP1−2.6 increased statistically significant at the level of 0.01 over Guizhou during 2025−2100, as well as rsds and pr under three scenarios, with growth of 1.22 percent points·10y⁻¹ (sfcWind, SSP1−2.6), 1.32/1.65/1.88 percent points·10y⁻¹ (rsds, SSP1−2.6/2−4.5/5−8.5) and 1.77/1.88/2.97 percent points·10y⁻¹（pr, SSP1−2.6/2−4.5/5−8.5）. Besides, the increases in rsds and pr were found generally in Guizhou during 21^st century with respect to 1995−2014, rising from west (near) to east (far) under three scenarios, while sfcWind had different change for different scenarios and areas. Taking the wind/solar/ precipitation resources at the 14 representative stations under SSP2−4.5 in Guizhou during the near−21^st century for example, the within and cross−regional complementarity was detected. Citing the case of Weining station from Jan to Dec, the seasonal complementarity was indicated due to making full use of solar/precipitation resources in summer and wind resource in winter/spring.

Key words: CMIP6, Guizhou, Projected climate change, Wind resource, Solar resource, Precipitation resource