中国农业气象

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安徽淮河流域各级降水时空变化及其对农业的影响

马晓群;陈晓艺;姚筠;   

  1. 安徽省气象科学研究所/安徽省大气科学与卫星遥感重点实验室;
  • 出版日期:2009-02-10 发布日期:2009-02-10
  • 基金资助:
    中国气象局武汉区域气象中心2006年科技发展基金项目“长江中游区域粮食安全的气候影响评估研究”

Spatial and Temporal Changes of Precipitation at Different Grades and Their Impacts on Agriculture in Huaihe River Basin of Anhui Province

MA Xiao-qun,CHEN Xiao-yi,YAO Yun (Institute of Meteorological Sciences of Anhui Province,Anhui Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Science andSatellite Remote Sensing,Hefei 230031,China)   

  • Online:2009-02-10 Published:2009-02-10

摘要: 利用淮河流域安徽省境内多个台站的逐日降水资料,采用点面结合、长短期结合的方式,分析淮河流域不同级别的降水量、降水日数和降水强度的时空分布特点及其对农业生产的影响。结果表明,年总降水量、大雨量和暴雨量随时间变化的趋势不显著,但年总降水日数减少,大雨以上级别雨日有微弱增加趋势,夏季降水量和大雨以上级别降水占总降水量的比例也有增加趋势;年和夏季的大雨和暴雨强度随时间呈显著的二次曲线关系,20世纪90年代后呈增大趋势;产量与降水量和降水日数均为二次曲线关系,与降水量的相关系数高于降水日数。近年来,平均年降水量和夏季降水量均高于农作物获得高产的最适值,涝灾受灾面积有明显的增加趋势。

关键词: 气候变化, 各级降水, 安徽淮河流域

Abstract: Based on daily precipitation data in the Huaihe River Basin of Anhui Province,the spatial and temporal changes of the precipitation at different grades and their impacts on agriculture were analyzed,combined the case studies and by using the method of particular examples,and long and short-term combination.The results showed that the chronological changes of annual precipitation,heavy rain and rainstorm were not significant,but annual precipitation days decreased and rain days over heavy rain grade were slightly increased.The summer rainfall and the proportion of rain over heavy rain grade to total precipitation also were increased.The annual and summer rainfall intensity of heavy rain and had a significantly quadric correlation with time,which tended to increase after 1990s.Crop yield had a quadric correlation with the rainfall and rain days.which correlation coefficient with rainfall was higher than that with rain days.Both the average annual precipitation and summer precipitation were higher than the optimum precipitation for high crop yield in recent years,and damage areas of waterlogging were obviously increased.

Key words: Climate change, Climate change, Different grade of precipitation, Huaihe River Basin of Anhui Province