• 论文 •

### SRES A1B情景下内蒙古地区未来气温、降水变化初步分析

1. 中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所/农业部农业环境与气候变化重点开放实验室，北京
• 出版日期:2011-11-20 发布日期:2011-11-23
• 基金资助:

中英瑞ACCC项目；气象行业科研专项经费项目( GYHY200806010)；中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费项目（BSRF201101）

### Analysis of Projected Variation on Temperature and Precipitation in Inner Mongolia under SRES A1B Scenario

MA Jian yong, XU Yin long, PAN Jie, JIANG Jiang

• Online:2011-11-20 Published:2011-11-23

Abstract: The responses of temperature and precipitation during 1961-1990(baseline) and 2011-2100 under SRES A1B scenario in Inner Mongolia was analyzed by using the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate for Impacts Studies), a regional climate model system driven by HadCM3Q0. The results showed that PRECIS might reproduce spatial distribution and frequency distribution of temperature and precipitation in Inner Mongolia during 1961-1990. Under A1B Scenario, compared with baseline, the high value centers of annual mean temperature would be near Ejina county and Hulunbuir, increasing by 2~5.6℃ in next 90 years, and the low value center would be located at central south of Inner Mongolia, increasing by 1.4~4.8℃. The 30 years average value of annual mean temperature during 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 would increase by 1.7℃, 3.5℃ and 5.1℃,respectively. And the warming tendency of temperature in each period would perform remarkably. Meanwhile, frequency distribution of daily mean temperature indicated that potential possibility of high temperature event might rise. In terms of annual precipitation, regions only in the western desert and parts of Hulunbuir would perform decreased tendency, others would increase by 10%~20% in next 90 years, and the high value centers would be near the south of Chifeng and Tongliao. As far as annual variation be concerned, the 30 years average value of annual precipitation during 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 would increase by 10.7%, 17.1% and 14.1%, respectively. Compared with baseline, from frequency distribution of future daily precipitation, it showed the occurrence of heavy precipitation events might increase.