关键词: 金丝小枣, 浆烂裂果, 信息扩散, 风险评估

Abstract: By using two meteorological factors of precipitation and sunshine as the study object, and to disperse the value of the risk level of precipitation and sunshine duration and calculate the disaster risk estimation caused by rainfall and sunlight, this research is conducted on the basis of fuzzy math and information diffusion theory and precipitation and sunshine hours in mid September to mid October from 1990 to 2009, combined with the survey of flesh rotten and fruit cracked damage of the jujube in the mature stage. The results showed that, in the period of mid September to mid October the risk probability of flesh rotten and fruit cracked damage of the jujube caused by precipitation was once in 4 to 5 years. Deviation of sunshine does not cause the disaster risk of flesh rotten and fruit cracked damage of the jujube. In addition, by using precipitation estimation of ≥80mm as the disaster threshold of flesh rotten and fruit cracked damage of the jujube, the results determine the period of disaster prevention and timely harvest for jujube farmers, conducive to disaster prevention and mitigation

Key words: Gold silk jujube, Flesh rotten and fruit cracked, Information diffusion, Risk assessment