关键词: ≥10℃积温, 无霜冻期, 7月平均气温, 棉花区划, 南疆地区, ArcGIS

Abstract: Based on climatic data from 52 meteorological stations in southern Xinjiang during 1961-2013, the fundamental spatial-temporal change characteristic of annual accumulated temperature of ≥10℃, frost-free period and mean temperature in July were analyzed by using the methods of linear regression, accumulative anomaly, T-test and mixed spatial interpolation technology based on ArcGIS. And the change of cotton-planting zoning was studied by combining with the cotton-planting climate division index. The main results are as the follows: heat resource was very obviously different in different regions of southern Xinjiang, generally, annual accumulated temperature of ≥10℃, frost-free period and mean temperature in July were higher or more in plain areas than in mountain areas. In the background of global warming, the three indicators showed an increasing trend at the rates of 56.63℃·d·10y1, 3.15d·10y1 and 0.15℃·10y1 in recent 53 years, and they had mutation in 1997, 1997 and 1994, respectively. Under the joint effects of the above-mentioned climate factors, the areas of middle maturing cotton and early-middle maturing cotton expanded 17682km2 and 43033km2 respectively, early maturing cotton areas did not change significantly, but the areas of special early maturing cotton and unsuitable cotton planting areas decreased by 4940km2 and 56589km2 after 1997 than before in southern Xinjiang.

Key words: Annual accumulated temperature of ≥10℃, Frost-free period, Mean temperature in July, Cotton- planting zoning, South Xinjiang, ArcGIS