华东地区≥10℃积温的时空演变特征

doi:10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2015.06.003

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 利用1961-2013年华东地区86个气象台站的日平均气温等资料，采用趋势分析法、克里金空间插值法(Kriging)、Mann-kendall突变检验以及Pearson相关分析等方法，分析该区域近53a日平均气温稳定≥10℃期间积温、持续日数、初终日以及积温带的变化特征。结果表明：（1）近53a华东地区日平均气温稳定≥10℃积温及其持续日数呈显著增加趋势，气候倾向率分别为89.71℃-d-10a-1(P＜0.01)和2.96d-10a-1(P＜0.05)，二者主要受初日提前和终日推迟的共同影响，且初日提前的影响更大。（2）日平均气温稳定≥10℃积温及其持续日数在空间分布上呈现明显的纬度地带性和垂直地带性特征，其变化趋势均呈现自东向西、自中部向南北两端递减的规律。（3）随着全球气候变暖，华东地区气候带的分布呈现明显的北移东扩，其中南亚热带、中亚热带的面积不断扩大，分别向北移动1.2、2.2个纬距；北亚热带约向北移动1个纬距，面积有所减小；暖温带的面积不断减小。（4）华东热量资源对平均气温的响应主要表现在积温的上升、持续日数的增加、初日的提前以及终日的延迟。

关键词: 气候变化, ≥10℃积温, 突变, 气候带, 华东地区

Abstract: Based on the surface temperature data of the 86 stations in East China during 1961 to 2013, the author analyzed the variation of accumulated temperature steadily above 10℃ and discussed the characteristics of climatic zones during 1961 to 2013 by using trend analysis, Kriging spatial interpolation method, Mann-kendall mutation test and Pearson correlation analysis. The results showed:(1) in recent 53 years, the accumulated temperature steadily above 10℃ and the duration days were increasing at the rate of 89.71℃-d-10y-1 (P＜0.01) and 2.96 d-10y-1 (P＜0.05) respectively in East China, this phenomenon was mainly because of the advance of beginning date and the delaying of ending date. Furthermore, the advancing of beginning date was more influential than the delaying of ending date. (2) The accumulated temperature steadily ≥10℃ and duration days presented an obvious latitude and vertical zonal characteristic. And the change rate showed a decrease trend from east to west, from the centre to the north and south. (3) Under the background of global warming, the climatic zone had a trend of extending to northward and eastward in East China. South subtropical zone and central subtropical zone was gradually expanding, respectively shift 1.2 and 2.2 degrees. While north subtropical zone and temperate zone showed a decreasing trend. The northern boundary of mid-subtropical zone shifted 2.0°. Overall the climatic zones shifted northward. (4) Responding to temperature rose, the heat resources highlighted the sustained days increased, and the beginning date advanced as well as the ending date delayed. The correlation between the accumulated temperature and the average temperature was the best.

Key words: Climate change, Annual accumulated temperature above 10℃, Abrupt change, Climatic zones, Spatial temporal distribution, East China

唐宝琪，延军平，李英杰. 华东地区≥10℃积温的时空演变特征[J]. 中国农业气象, 2015, 36(06): 674-682.

TANG Bao-qi，YAN Jun-ping，LI Ying-jie. Changes of the Accumulated Temperature above 10℃ in East China[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology, 2015, 36(06): 674-682.

参考文献

[1] 秦大河,Thomas Stocker,259名作者和TSU.IPCC第五次评估报告第一工作组报告的亮点结论[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(1):1-6.
Qin D H,Thomas S,et al.Highlights of the IPCC working group I fifth assessment report[J]. Advances in Climate Change Research,2014,10(1):1-6.(in Chinese)
[2] 柏秦凤,霍治国,李士奎,等.1978年前、后中国≥10℃年积温对比[J].应用生态学报,2008,19(8):1810-1816.
Bai Q F,Huo Z G,Li S K,et al.Comparison of accumulated temperature above 10℃ before and after the year 1978 in China[J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,2008,19(8): 1810-1816.(in Chinese)
[3] 胡琦,潘学标,邵长秀,等.1961-2010年中国农业热量资源分布和变化特征[J].中国农业气象,2014,35(2):119-127.
Hu Q,Pan X B,Shao C X,et al.Distribution and variation of China agricultural heat resources in 1961-2010[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2014,35(2):119-127.(in Chinese)
[4] 郑景云,卞娟娟,葛全胜,等.1981-2010年中国气候区划[J].科学通报,2013,58(30):3088-3099.
Zheng J Y,Bian J J,Ge Q S,et al.The climate regionalization in China for 1981-2010[J].Science China Press,2013,58(30): 3088-3099.(in Chinese)
[5] 戴声佩,李海亮,罗红霞.1960-2011年华南地区界限温度10℃积温时空变化分析[J].地理学报,2014,69(5):650-660.
Dai S P,Li H L,Luo H X,et al.The spatio-temporal change of active accumulated temperature ≥10℃ in Southern China from 1960 to 2011[J].Acta Geographica Sinca,2014,69(5): 650-660.(in Chinese)
[6] 马洁华,刘园,杨晓光,等.全球气候变化背景下华北平原气候资源变化趋势[J].生态学报,2010,30(14):3818-3827.
Ma J H,Liu Y,Yang X G,et al.Characteristics of climate resources under global climate change in the North China Plain[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2010,30(14):3818-3827.(in Chinese)
[7] 刘实,王勇,缪启龙,等.近50 年东北地区热量资源变化特征[J].应用气象学报,2010,21(3):266-278.
Liu S,Wang Y,Miao Q L,et al. Variation characteristics of thermal resources in Northeast China in recent 50 years[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2010, 21(3):266-278.(in Chinese)
[8] 李军,高苹,陈艳春,等.华东地区耕地制度对积温变化的响应[J].生态学杂志,2008,27(3):361-368.
Li J,Gao P,Chen Y C,et al.Relationships between farming system and effective accumulated temperature in East China[J].Chinese Journal of Ecology,2008,27(3):361-368.(in Chinese)
[9] 张立波,吉宗伟,郑选军,等.近50年华东地区热量资源变化特征分析[J].中国农业气象,2012,33(3):325-332.
Zhang L B,Ji Z W,Zheng X J,et al.Variation characteristics of thermal resources in Eastern China in the past 50 years[J]. Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2012,33(3):325-332.(in Chinese)
[10]周伟东,朱洁华,李军,等.华东地区热量资源的气候变化特征[J].资源科学,2009,31(3):272-478.
Zhao W D,Zhu J H,Li J,et al.Characteristics of climate change for heat resources in East China[J].Resources Science,2009,31(3):272-478.(in Chinese)
[11]孙卫国,程炳岩,杨沈斌,等.区域气候变化对华东地区水稻产量的影响[J].中国农业气象,2011,32(2):227-234.
Sun W G,Cheng B Y,Yang S B,et al.Impact of the regional climate variations on rice yield in East China[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2011,32(2):227-234.(in Chinese)
[12]李军,陈慧,陈艳春,等.华东地区热量资源的变化特征、趋势预估及农业适应对策[J].生态学杂志,2009,28(10):2069- 2075.
Li J,Chen H,Chen Y C,et al.Thermal resources change characteristics,its trend prediction,and agricultural adaptation countermeasures in East China[J].Chinese Journal of Ecology,2009,28(10):2069-2075.(in Chinese)
[13]王树廷.关于日平均气温稳定通过各级界限温度初终日期的统计方法[J].气象,1982,(6):29-30.
Wang S T.About daily average temperature stability by all levels of boundary temperature at the beginning of the end date of statistical method[J].Meteorological Monthly,1982, (6):29-30.(in Chinese)
[14]符淙斌,王强.气候突变的定义和检测方法[J].大气科学,1992,16(4):482-493.
Fu C B,Wang Q.The definition and detection of the abrupt climatic change[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 1992,16(4):482-493.(in Chinese)
[15]陈彦光.地理数学方法:基础和应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2011:23-25.
Chen Y G.Mathematical methods for geography:foundations and applications[M].Beijing:Science Press,2011:23-25.(in Chinese)
[16]Dong J W,Liu J Y,Tao F L,et al.Spatio-temporal changes in annual accumulated temperature in China and the effects on cropping systems,1980s to 2000[J].Climate Research,2009, 40:37-48.
[17]张厚瑄,张翼.中国活动积温对气候变暖的响应[J].地理学报,1994,49(1):27-36.
Zhang H X,Zhang Y.Preliminary discussion on the response of active accumulated temperature of China to climate warming[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,1994,49(1):27-36.(in Chinese)
[18]季生太,杨明,纪仰慧,等.黑龙江近45年积温变化及积温带的演变趋势[J].中国农业气象,2009,30(2):133-137.
Ji S T,Yang M,Ji Y H,et al.Change of accumulated temperature and evolution trends of accumulated temperature zone over last 45 years in Heilongjiang Province[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2009,30(2):133-137.(in Chinese)
[19]程建刚,王学峰,范立张,等.近50年来云南气候带的变化特征[J].地理科学进展,2009,28(1):18-24.
Cheng J G,Wang X F,Fan L Z,et al.Variations of Yunnan climatic zones in recent 50 years[J].Progress in Geography, 2009,28(1):18-24.(in Chinese)
[20]周旗,卞娟娟,郑景云.秦岭南北1951-2009年的气温与热量资源变化[J].地理学报,2011,66(9):1211-1218.
Zhou Q,Bian J J,Zheng J Y.Variation of air temperature and thermal resources in the Northern and Southern regions of the Qinling Mountains from 1951 to 2009[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2011,66(9):1211-1218.(in Chinese)
[21]刘勤,严昌荣,何文清,等.黄河流域近40a积温动态变化研究[J].自然资源学报,2009,24(1):147-153.
Liu Q,Yan C R,He W Q,et al.Dynamic variation of accumulated temperature data in recent 40 years in the Yellow River basin[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2009, 24(1):147-153.(in Chinese)
[22]高庆九,张荣,管兆勇.近50a来华北地区负积温变化特征[J].大气科学学报,2012,35(4):448-457.
Gao Q J,Zhang R,Guan Z Y.Characteristics of the negative accumulated temperature change in North China in recent 50 years[J].Trans Atmos Sci,35(4):448-457.(in Chinese)
[23]任国玉,郭军,徐铭志,等.近50年中国地面气候变化基本特征[J].气象学报,2005,63(6):942-956.
Ren G Y,Guo J,Xu Z M,et al.Climate changes of China’s mainland over the past half century[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2005,63(6):942-956.(in Chinese)
[24]史军,丁一汇,崔林丽,等.华东极端高温气候特征及成因分析[J].大气科学,2009,33(2):347-357.
Shi J,Ding Y H,Cui L L,et al.Climatic characteristics of extreme maximum temperature in East China and its causes[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,2009, 33(2):347-357.(in Chinese)
[25]吴文玉,马晓群,陈晓艺,等.安徽省热量资源空间分布模型及插值方法研究[J].西北农林科技大学学报,2009,37(9): 175-181.
Wu W Y,Ma X Q,Chen X Y,et al.Establishment of spatial distribution models and spatial interpolation for thermal resources in Anhui Province[J].Journal of Northwest A & F University,2009,37(9):175-181.(in Chinese)
[26]王键,吕新,王江丽,等.石河子市近57年积温变化趋势特征研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2013,27(6):154-159.
Wang J,Lv X,Wang J L,et al.The variation tendency of accumulated temperature of Shihezi City in recent 57 years[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2013,27(6):154-159.(in Chinese)
[27]李硕,沈彦俊.气候变暖对西北干旱区农业热量资源变化的影响[J].中国生态农业学报,2013,21(2):227-235.
Li S,Shen Y J.Impact of climate warming on temperature and heat resource in arid Northwest China[J].Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture,2013,21(2):227-235.(in Chinese)